IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 2:52 AM EST551
FXUS63 KIND 080752
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
252 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of showers
- Decreasing clouds with slightly below normal temperatures Saturday
- Well above normal temperatures expected next week with breezy
conditions at times
- Precipitation chances return mid to late next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 252 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure over KY and
WV. A large area of high pressure was found over NB and KS, building
eastward. Aloft water vapor shows northwest flow in place aloft
with minimal forcing feature found upstream. Radar shows light rain
showers with the departing low pressure system continuing to exit
southeast. Winds have become northerly in the wake of the departing
low.
Today -
Quiet, pleasant weather is expected today. Models show cool
northwest flow in place aloft with subsidence in play. Surface high
pressure over the plains states is expected to build eastward into
the Ohio Valley also. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry
column through the day. Although some morning cloudiness may still
be possible as the previously mentioned surface low departs, skies
should become mostly sunny by late morning and afternoon. Weak cold
air advection will be in place today. Thus will trend highs toward
the middle 40s.
Tonight -
Mostly clear and quiet weather is expected tonight as models show
northwest flow remaining in place aloft with subsidence in play. The
associated surface high pressure system is expected to become more
elongated through the Ohio Valley and toward the Carolinas. The high
and the subsidence in place aloft will continue to result in dry
weather and mostly clear skies. Forecast soundings and time heights
remain on board, showing a dry column overnight. Thus a clear sky
will be expected, with lows in the lower to middle 30s as westerly
winds and warm air advection beginning.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 252 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
A southern stream low will push well to our south early in the short
term, with surface high pressure working to keep the area quiet and
dry.
Once this initial system pushes to the east, upper level flow will
become significantly more zonal or even weakly anticyclonic through
the early portion of the work week, with plentiful sunshine and
rapidly warming temperatures. Highs will be well into the 60s most
of the area each day Monday through Wednesday, with 70 degree
readings possible mid to late week.
A weakening upper low will slide eastward through the Tennessee
Valley Wednesday night into Thursday, and may be able to bring a few
light showers to the area, though model trends continue downward on
precipitation chances with this system, as deep moisture transport
is extremely limited.
More significant chances for precipitation look to come as the
weekend begins, with models continuing to show incredibly strong lee-
side cyclogenesis which then pushes northeastward into the upper
Great Lakes. Model differences remain significant with this system,
though there is general agreement in larger scale details, with
timing the most significant discrepancy, as is often the case with
highly amplified systems.
Will have to continue to monitor guidance trends towards the
weekend, as at a minimum some heavy rain potential would be likely
and perhaps some strong thunderstorms as well, though that threat
would be much more conditional.
Outside of precipitation or potential convection, strong synoptic
winds would certainly be on the table given the depth of the surface
low, with even NBM numbers already suggesting 40+ MPH for next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1212 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR Cigs possible overnight
- Rain ends by 09Z
- VFR much of Saturday
Discussion:
Low pressure over the Ohio River was pushing east toward West
Virginia early this morning. Radar shows an area of light rain
showers on the north side of the low, pushing across the TAF sites.
GOES16 shows abundant MVFR and low VFR Cigs with the precipitation
shield.
The low will push farther east over the next few hours, taking the
lower clouds east also. But clouds may persist through the first 6
hours of the TAF period.
Conditions will return to VFR at or before 14Z as high pressure over
the plains states builds eastward, allowing dry air on northerly
winds. Forecast soundings and time heights then trend toward a dry
column for the rest of Saturday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 2:52 AM EST---------------
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