ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 6:41 AM EST992
FXUS61 KILN 071141
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
641 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to track from the Central Plains into the
Mississippi Valley today and across the Ohio Valley tonight.
This system will offer a chance of precipitation. High pressure
will return this weekend into early next week bringing dry
weather and a warming trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface ridge of high pressure to slide east with mid and high
level WAA clouds spilling into the area ahead of the next
system. Progressive surface low to track east from the Central
Plains to the Mid MS Valley today and across the Ohio Valley
tonight.
In the region of isentropic lift there is a very small chance
of a few sprinkles or flurries early this morning across
Southeast Indiana/Southwest Ohio. Dry low levels - so this pcpn
will likely appear as virga and not reach the ground.
Mid level clouds thicken during the day with rain developing as
the lower levels moisten up -- affecting mainly the northern
half of ILN/s area thru the afternoon. Pcpn will start as light
snow and transition to rain - with a rain/snow mix persisting
across the far northern counties. Liquid pcpn will be light and
little or no snow accumulation is expected.
Highs temperatures will be limited to the lower to middle 40s
across the north, while reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s
across the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Progressive surface low to track east from the Mid MS Valley
this evening across the Ohio Valley overnight.
Precipitation across the far north early this evening will
shift south tonight as the sheared out mid level shortwave and
associated weak surface low track thru the Ohio Valley. As
low level CAA develops the northern periphery of the
precipitation shield looks to be cold enough to support a
chance for a rain/snow mix changing to snow. Pcpn will be light
with the potential for a dusting -- mainly on grassy areas.
Lows will range from the mid 20s across the north to the mid
30s in the south.
Mid level confluent region and surface high pressure to build
into the area Saturday. Residual pcpn across the southeast to
end early with clouds giving way to increasing sunshine. High
temperatures to range from near 40 north to the upper 40s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very quiet long term pattern with dry conditions expected from
Saturday night through the day on Wednesday. There will be a
warming trend through most of this time with above normal
temperatures for the long term. Winds will be gusty with wind gusts
30 to 35 mph on Tuesday.
There are some continued indications of a mid week system and
rainfall chances across the region. There are still timing and
placement uncertainties with this system due to model run to run
variability. Due to this limited most locations to just a chance of
precipitation. Even with this system, expect temperatures to
continue to be above normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected this morning into this afternoon with
MVFR to occasional IFR conditions developing this evening.
Surface ridge of high pressure to slide east with WAA clouds
developing ahead of the next low pressure system this morning.
This progressive surface low to track east from the Central
Plains to the Mid MS Valley today and across the Ohio Valley
tonight.
Mid level ceilings to develop across the area early. There is a
very small chance of some light rain or light snow in the
is observed at KCVG/KLUK, but with a dry low level no impacts
are expected if it were to occur.
Mid level clouds thicken during the day with rain developing as
the lower levels moisten up -- affecting the KDAY and KCMH/KLCK
TAF sites first before moving south to KILN and KCVG/KLUK. The
rain may eventually bring some MVFR visibilities, with MVFR
ceilings developing this evening. A brief period of IFR ceilings
is possible at all TAF sites overnight as low level CAA develops
and the rain may mix with snow prior to ending. MVFR ceilings
will continue into Saturday morning with a slow improvement to
VFR.
Light southwest winds at less than 10 kts will eventually
becoming northeast to north tonight and increase to 10-12kts
late.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are likely into Saturday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 6:41 AM EST---------------
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