LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 12:19 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...072
FXUS63 KLMK 090519
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1219 AM EST Sun Mar 9 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week. Highs in
the 60s on Monday, low 70s on Tuesday, and mid 70s on Wednesday.
* Increasing risk for gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain next
weekend as a strong low pressure system is expected to track
through the central US.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
RAP 500 MB analysis and water vapor imagery sow a relatively zonal
flow pattern across the eastern third of the CONUS with a positively
tilted UL trough over the southwest. Relatively dry with a little
moisture working into the Ohio River Valley as of the early
afternoon, however mostly clear skies with a few passing high level
clouds across the area were observed. Temperatures ranged from 46
at Huntingburg, IN to 55 at Bowling Green KY.
NNW flow aloft, and high pressure at the surface, will keep cool air
from the north advecting into the area. While temps the low to mid
30s (which is near to slightly below normal for early March) are
expected, incoming cloud cover spreading across the region from the
incoming trough of low pressure could keep low temps a bit on the
warmer side.
The trough of low pressure over the southwest is expected to stay
south of the forecast area tonight into Sunday as high pressure
remains in control. Morning clouds will become more scattered
through the day as the storm system moves across the southeast.
Highs near 60 on Sunday will be near to slightly above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
==== Sunday Night - Wednesday =====
Dry and quiet weather will be ongoing Sunday night, with slightly
more cloud cover across the south. This will be due to an upper low
crossing the Deep South, though we remain dry as all the forcing and
moisture stays across the Gulf states. Winds overnight will be light
and variable, and combined with mostly clear skycover, should help
radiate temps down into the lower 30s, which would end up being a
few degrees below normals.
For Monday through Wednesday, the upper flow pattern will become
more zonal, with sfc high pressure spread across the region. Expect
plenty of sunshine and comfortable temps for next week. Temperatures
will warm through the week, but more info on that is listed below.
===== Wednesday Night - Weekend =====
An upper low will likely come ashore over Southern California on
Tuesday, which will then cross the southern half of the US by the
mid-week. We'll get a meager moisture axis up into the lower Ohio
Valley, which could be enough for isolated to scattered light
showers Wednesday night and into Thursday, but certainly not a
soaking rain event. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
guidance continues to suggest weakening of this mid-week wave, and
could end up with very limited areas that actually get measurable
precip.
A second upper trough will come ashore over the Pacific Coast on
Thursday, which will be much more amplified. This system will
continue deepening as it tracks across the central US, potentially
bringing a significant low pressure system across the Plains. Friday
is expected to be dry and very warm, with strengthening WAA pattern
due to deep SW flow.
For Saturday, a large warm conveyor belt LLJ will spread out ahead
of the low, possibly exceeding 65kts in the 850mb layer over the
forecast area. Combined with a very tight pressure gradient due to
how deep the sfc low is expected to be, gusty southwest winds will
be something to watch for next weekend. Moderate to heavy rain and
thunderstorms will be something to also keep eyes on, though some
timing difference between the global solutions will need to be
sorted out in the coming days. The CPC experimental 8-14 day heavy
rain probabilities continue to highlight portions of Tennessee and
Kentucky with a high risk (>60%) for heavy rain. While soundings do
not show much instability at this time, the profiles are well-
saturated, and highly sheared, resulting in curved hodographs. The
NAEFS ESAT does indicate some lower probabilities of extreme wind
probs for Saturday. We are just beyond the scope of the EFI at this
time too, so we'll get better details in the coming days.
===== Well Above Normal Temperatures Next Week =====
WAA will increase throughout the week, leading to daily temperatures
well above normal. Normal highs for this time of year are around the
mid-50s. We'll see temps climb into the 70s for Tuesday-Friday,
possibly reaching the upper-70s by Friday.
Normal morning lows for this time of year are in the upper 30s.
We'll see morning lows in the 40s, possibly upper-40s and low-50s
for the end of the week.
Records currently do not appear to be in jeopardy, but will be
something to keep an eye on for March 14.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM EST Sun Mar 9 2025
Forecast continues with prevailing VFR flight categories through the
forecast period. High clouds associated with a weak sfc system along
the Gulf Coast will be over the region through the early morning.
Skies will start to clear going into the afternoon as high pressure
starts to build in over the region suppressing the moisture from the
south. Winds will remain generally light but will increase some out
of the west to around 5 Kts for SDF-LEX with a more easterly flow
for BWG in the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 12:19 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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