JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 7:50 AM EST983
FXUS63 KJKL 071250 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
750 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder temperatures return through Saturday, along with a 40 to
70% chances of measurable rain of rain tonight into .Saturday.
- Well above normal temperatures are expected by the middle of
next week.
- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds could result in
near critical fire weather Tuesday and/or Wednesday afternoons.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends. Light returns could lead to a few flurries or sprinkles
reaching the ground over the next few hours as a passing
disturbance and associated mid level deck cross the area. So far,
no measurable precipitation has been reported at KY Mesonet
stations, though the KFFT, Frankfort ASOS, has recently reported
some snow reaching the ground. Chances for sprinkles or flurries
along with a narrow area of slight chance pops for rain or snow
showers currently in the database has this covered for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 424 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
Early this morning a shortwave trough extended from the James Bay
region to the Northeast Conus and into portions of the Atlantic
while flat upper ridging extended from the Gulf to the mid MS
Valley. An upper level low was working across parts of Ontario
with an associated shortwave trough across the upper MS valley tot
he eastern Dakotas. Upper troughing was also over portions of the
Rockies to the southwest Conus. A couple of weaker shortwave
troughs were moving between the troughing to the northeast of the
Commonwealth and ridging to the south with the fist moving to the
east of eastern KY while another was over the Lower OH Valley
region. Further upstream, a series of shortwaves were ejecting
from the western Conus trough and into the Plains with the most
pronounced moving across parts of the Central Plains. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was centered over northwest
portions of KS with an occluded front south across western KS to a
triple point in southern KS. A warm front extended east to the
vicinity of the Ozarks south across western portions of AR while
the trailing cold front south near the TN Panhandle and OK border
area south to western TX. Further east a ridge of sfc high
pressure extended from the Gulf north to TN and Lower OH
Valley/Commonwealth. Under the influence of the sfc high, a
moderate ridge/valley temperature split was present over northern
and eastern portions of the area with low to mid 20s in the
deeper valleys with temperatures near 30 on coalfield ridges and
in areas of more open terrain. Radar returns were across the area
in a warm advective pattern in advance of a weak
shortwave/disturbance. No visibility reductions have been observed
with this though dewpoint depressions are smaller near this band.
This may largely be virga from mid level clouds, but some
flurries could be reaching the ground sporadically.
The initial shortwave disturbance will continue to depart to the
east of the area during the predawn hours, while the next
shortwave works east from the Lower to middle OH Valley through
the morning with the warm advective pattern occurring, especially
aloft. A brief period of shortwave ridging may follow across
eastern KY from late this morning to early this afternoon,
however, the next shortwave trough will move further east into the
Central Conus while another shortwave in SW flow is progged to
arrive in the Lower OH Valley this afternoon and then pass across
eastern KY through around sunset. Meanwhile, the shortwave moving
from the Central Conus is progged to interact with the upper
level low and associated trough moving from Ontario and across
the Central and toward the eastern Great Lakes later today and
tonight, merging to form a positively tilted trough at 500 mb.
The axis of this trough will approach the OH Valley late tonight,
and cross the Commonwealth through early on Saturday afternoon. At
the same time, the troughing over the western Conus will be more
or less left behind as ridging builds east from the Pacific and
into much of the western U.S., with an upper level low developing
to the south and southwest of the Four Corners region later today
and then tracking to the TX panhandle vicinity through the end of
the period.
Meanwhile, the surface low is expected to track from KS to the
mid MS and Lower OH Valley later this afternoon and this evening.
Meanwhile, the systems warm front will lift into the Lower OH and
TN Valleys this morning and then north to northern and
southeastern KY through around sunset. This low should track
across the Commonwealth and pass over eastern KY tonight while the
trailing cold front sweeps across the CWA overnight to Saturday
morning. Sfc high pressure will build east from the Central Conus
and Plains into the OH Valley region to end the period on Saturday
as the frontal zone sags further south and southeast of eastern
KY.
Moisture will be quite limited with this system, though some
flurries or sprinkles cannot be ruled out this morning with the
first shortwave with these falling from mid level clouds. Some
additional sprinkles could occur this afternoon to early evening
as the next disturbances moves across the area. More substantial
moisture, including low level moisture will be transported
in/accompany the sfc low and in advance of the cold front and
associated 500 mb trough. PW is progged to climb to from initial
values of about 0.3 to 0.5 inches to around 0.5 inches this
morning and then increase further to 0.5 to 0.7 inches by early
evening and peak around 0.6 to 0.8 inches late this evening into
the overnight ahead of the front per 00Z HREF mean. Scattered to
numerous showers are anticipated, though these should be more
numerous near the northward moving warm front and the sfc low to
track across the central part of the area, generally from near
the Mtn Pkwy corridor to the far eastern KY with the least
coverage and slightly lower PW along the TN border.
Event total rainfall from this evening to Saturday morning from
this system should range from the 0.01 to 0.1 inches for the 25th
percentile depending location to 0.1 to 0.25 inches for the 75th
percentile also depending on location. Overall, given the limited
moisture expected, the most likely rainfall should range from only
a couple to a few hundredths near Lake Cumberland to TN border
locations and the I-75 corridor to as much as a tenth or two
tenths generally near the Mtn Pkwy corridor from Powell to Wolfe
County and then along or east of the KY 15 corridor south from
there across Breathitt to Perry counties to near Carr Creek Lake
to Letcher County and the higher terrain along the VA border from
Black Mtn to the crest of Pine Mtn from Harlan County to the
Breaks/Pike County. Overall, there is about a 40 to 70 percent
chance of measurable rainfall across the region.
Temperatures today with south to south southwest flow in place
should peak near normal in the 50s for most locations, while lows
tonight will be above normal with the front moving through and
associated cloud and showers. Showers will taper off on Saturday
from northwest to southeast and clouds should also decrease
through the day with most locations, becoming partly to mostly
sunny by late afternoon/early evening. A slightly colder airmass
will be ushered in behind the system with highs reaching the
upper 40s to mid 50s or about 5 degrees below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
The forecast period begins with the area under weak surface high
pressure and upper-level zonal flow. Upper-level zonal flow will
break down ahead of an approaching system that progged to skirt the
forecast area. Models continue to have this system remaining largely
south of the CWA but the far southeastern counties could see 10 to
20% PoP through Sunday afternoon before the system moves off the
eastern seaboard.
Behind the exiting system, surface high pressure will build back
into the area for the remainder of the weekend and persist through
the middle of next week. Courtesy of the surface high, temperatures
will begin to warm across the area with highs topping out in the low
to mid-70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Also, due to the dry airmass
in place, widespread drying can and will take place which could lead
to a resurgence of localized fire weather concerns for Tuesday and
Wednesday. For late next week, models are in consensus of another
system moving off the Rockies into the southern Plains before
ejecting toward the Commonwealth bringing increased chances for
showers for late Thursday morning through early Friday morning.
Overall the period will feature a weak system skirting the area and
bringing an isolated chance of rain and possibly snow for Sunday
before warm temperatures build in for most of next week. Lastly, a
second system is forecast to impact the region for the middle of
next week and possibly another strong system moving into the region
for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
Surface high pressure will gradually shift to the east of the
area during the first 6 to 9 hours of the period as a couple of
disturbances and a low pressure system approach from the Plains.
The warm front associated with this system should lift into south
central and eastern KY from midday Friday through Friday evening
while the sfc low reaches the Lower OH valley on Friday evening.
This sfc low should track across western and into central KY
during the last 12 hours of the period. High and some mid clouds
currently west of the area should cross eastern KY through around
18Z to 21Z, with perhaps a few low clouds. Some mainly virga or
isolated sprinkles or flurries could fall from some of this today,
especially over the next 3 hours. Otherwise, more in the way of
mid clouds along with the arrival of low clouds is expected as the
disturbances and sfc low near during the last 6 to 9 hours of the
period. VFR should prevail in all areas through 3Z, before MVFR
should begin to arrive near and north of I 64 and near and west of
the I-75 corridor with a period of MVFR and IFR reductions in
advance of and near the trailing cold front within an area of
showers. Light and variable winds will prevail through around
15Z, before winds become south to south southwest at generally 5
to 10 KT. After 22Z, winds should average south to southwest at
less than 10KT with some locations becoming light and variable.
However, as the front sags south, winds will become more westerly.
At the same time, south to southwest winds aloft will increase
and will be transporting in low to mid level moisture and an area
of light rain or scattered to numerous showers as well as a
threat for LLWS between 23Z and 10Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 7:50 AM EST---------------
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