JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 12:31 PM EST089
FXUS63 KJKL 061731
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1231 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder temperatures return to finish the week, along with an
expectation of rain Friday night into early Saturday.
- Well above normal temperatures are expected by the middle of
next week.
- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds could result in
near critical fire weather Tuesday and/or Wednesday afternoons.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1203 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
Update sent out for PoPs, Sky, and temperatures. Overall, not
much change from the previous forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 948 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
Short and sweet update just sent out to expire the Winter Weather
Advisory at 10 AM EST for Letcher and Harlan counties. Radar, and
weather observations, indicate some patchy drizzle and freezing
drizzle currently. This should become less of a threat as
temperatures rise above freezing over the next few hours. A minor
glaze of ice is possible on shaded and elevated surfaces at
locations where freezing drizzle occurs.
UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
Light returns across the area were producing some very light snow
along with drizzle or freezing drizzle. A few spots with light
glazes on elevated surfaces have been reported near Somerset with
KJKL and KLOZ ASOS sites also having reported a trace of icing.
Some AWOS stations were reporting flurries or light snow. The
light mix should taper off this morning, with only a light
dusting of snow or a light glaze in some areas. However, there is
some concern that isolated to patchy slick spots are possible on
any untreated elevated surfaces such as bridges or overpasses as
well as walkways and decks and perhaps a few secondary or tertiary
roadways as has been reported to the north of eastern KY. An SPS
was issued through 10 AM EST for this potential threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
Early this morning, the axis of an upper level trough has move
east of eastern KY and extended from troughing over Central
Canada to Lake Superior and Lake Huron to Lake Erie across the
Central Appalachians to the coast of the Carolinas to the Bahamas
vicinity. This trough was located between and upper level ridge
over the western Atlantic and another upper ridge the axis of
which extended from Mexico across parts of the Southern Plains to
eastern MT. Further west, an upper level trough was moving across
the Northeast to CA coastal areas and into the western Conus.
Meanwhile, an upper low moving through troughing in Central parts
of Canada was centered over Manitoba at present. The final
shortwave in a series of disturbances crossing eastern KY and the
OH Valley region is crossing western OH to the central and eastern
KY area at this point. Low level moisture remains across the
region at present and light to in some cases moderate snow showers
was occurring across the area. 850 mb temperatures have cooled to
the -8C to -10C range which has led to max lapse rate in the 2 to
6km AGL layer into the 6.5C range west to 8C near the VA border,
though this area of steepest max lapse rates has shifted east.
This morning through tonight, the shortwave trough will continue
east and northeast across the area this morning, with 850 mb
temperatures likely bottoming out over the next 6 to 8 hours,
before warm advection occurs at 850 mb as the disturbance departs
and the upper ridge shifts further into the Plains/central Conus.
850 mb temperatures are expected to rise to the -4C to -7C range
this evening and continue moderating tonight. Snow showers should
gradually shift more into the far eastern and southeastern areas
nearer to the WV border over the next few hours with some flurries
falling from stratocumulus potentially lingering until 850 mb
temperatures reach their peak this morning to around midday in the
far east and along the VA border. Thereafter, the upper level
ridge will continue to build east with the axis extending from
the Gulf to Central Conus to MS Valley overnight.
This ridge axis should pass east of the area on Friday though
later tonight and on Friday, this ridge will tend to flatten. This
will occur as an upper low/shortwave trough initially over
Manitoba works east southeast across parts of ON and then to
Quebec to end the period and associated trough extends across the
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a shortwave is also progged to eject from
the trough the moves from the west coast of the Conus and nears
the High Plains to Four Corners region late in the period and trek
across the Central Conus to mid MS Valley vicinity by the end of
the period. A sfc system associated with this shortwave is progged
to track from KS to the mid MS Valley on Fri with a warm front
to its east lifting into eastern KY. Another boundary extending
from the St Lawrence valley to the eastern Great Lakes to parts
of the central U.S will also approach the Commonwealth at that
point. 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm further into the
single digits above zero on Friday. There will be some moisture
associated with the approaching shortwave and perhaps another
weaker disturbance ahead of it on Friday though this moisture
should generally be confined to 750 or 800 mb and above. Some
sprinkles could fall from this generally across the north and east
on Friday, though more significant moistening in the lower level
should occur just after the end of the period, when chances for
light rain arrives.
Temperatures will be average about 10 degrees below normal today
with the sub 0C (single digits below zero C) temperatures at 850
mb. A sfc ridge associated with the mid and upper level ridge
working across the area will be centered over the Gulf coast
states, but extend north into the Commonwealth tonight, before
this high shifts to the east and southeast on Friday. This
scenario should set the stage for a moderate ridge valley split as
mid 20s (perhaps cooler per COOP MOS) are anticipated in deeper
eastern valleys with lows near or just below freezing on coalfield
ridges tonight. Temperatures then moderate into the 50s for all
but elevations above 3000 feet on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
The forecast period starts an approaching system that'll move
through the Ohio Valley late Friday night through early Saturday
morning. The warm front is forecast to move through Ohio but as the
trough pivots to the southeast, the associated cold front will cross
through the CWA overnight Friday into Saturday. PoP chances
overnight are forecast to be widespread 60% to 70%. Showers will
quickly taper off through the morning but lingering upslope PoP
chances will exist along the southeastern high terrain into Saturday
afternoon before coming to an end.
At the same time the Friday/Saturday system is moving through the
region, another system is progged to develop over the heart of Texas
and eject eastward into the Deep South. In the latest model suites,
the system is forecast to stay further to the south compared to the
forecast yesterday and as a result; the PoP chances that were there
have continued to diminish and if this trend continues, PoP will be
nonexistent for Sunday. However, the system is still forecast to
move through the south and behind the exiting system, surface high
pressure will build back into the area for the remainder of the
weekend and persist through the remainder of the forecast period.
Courtesy of the surface high, temperatures will begin to warm across
the area with highs topping out in the low to mid-70s for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Also, due to the dry airmass in place, widespread
drying can and will take place which could lead to a resurgence of
localized fire weather concerns for Tuesday and Wednesday. For late
next week, models are in consensus of another system moving off the
Rockies into the southern Plains before ejecting toward the
Commonwealth bringing increased chances for showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms for the end of the forecast period.
Overall the period will feature a weak cold front that'll bring rain
chances for late Friday into Saturday and another system potentially
skirts the area and brings an isolated chance of rain and possibly
snow for Sunday before warm temperatures build in for most of next
week. Lastly, a potential third system is possible for end of the
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
MVFR conditions were present in the form of low cigs to begin the
period. Models suggest a rapid decrease in this cloud cover from
southwest to northeast this afternoon into early this evening.
Based on current satellite trends, the trend in scattering out the
MVFR cloud deck was slowed a bit. Otherwise, the forecast remains
essentially on track with diminishing west-northwesterly winds and
wind gusts (to around 20 kts) through the remainder of the
afternoon, with widespread VFR conditions and light winds tonight
before mid- and upper- level clouds increase from the west after
06z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 12:31 PM EST---------------
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