ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 7, 1:36 PM EDT393
FXUS61 KILN 071736
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
136 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area through tonight,
bringing dry but slightly below normal temperatures. A chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms will return later Saturday
into Sunday morning as a weak upper level disturbance moves
through the Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies are clear this morning with high pressure centered to the
west. In weak cyclonic low level flow and shallow moisture,
expect to see some scattered cu development through late morning
and into this afternoon. West to northwest winds will gust
around 25 mph today in the relatively tight pressure gradient
ahead of the high. Temperatures today will be a few degrees
below normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee
Valley through tonight. This will lead to mostly clear skies
through much of the night although we may begin to see some
higher level clouds spread in from the west late ahead of an
approaching mid level short wave. This short wave will continue
to move east across the Ohio Valley, but weaken through the day
on Saturday. As a result, will only bring in slight chance pops
across the southwest through the afternoon. Highs on Saturday
will range from the mid 70s southwest to the upper 70s in the
northeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This period will be largely characterized by troughing and cooler
than normal temperatures, and the lack of hazardous weather. Near
the end of the period, a warming trend to above normal will settle
in.
To wrap up the weekend, an elongated longwave trough will be
stretched through the entirety of southern Canada, extending
southward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Weak ripples
within the zonal flow support a mention of rain Sunday. On Monday, a
deeper shortwave will attempt to dig into the Ohio Valley, supplying
a chance for more even cooler conditions. These cooler conditions
extend into Tuesday.
Through the middle to end of the week, a ridge attempts to build
into the Ohio Valley, triggering a warming trend back into the 80s.
A limiting factor is tied to a deepening trough which may delay the
onset of a deeper/stronger ridge expected for the weekend into early
next week. Currently, 00Z GEFS and ECMWF ENS have trended slightly
less in magnitude with the ridge on Thursday/Friday, increasing
uncertainty at how quickly the warm up will arrive.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expect to persist through the forecast. Mainly clear
skies and gusty winds are forecast this afternoon. Winds calm
down while clouds increase slightly tonight. For Saturday, a
weakening disturbance moving from the west toward the Ohio
River will cause mid clouds to move in. CVG may see some low
clouds near the end of their 30 hour TAF. Kept showers out due
to expected scattered nature. Winds from the south to southwest
will average close to 10 knots Saturday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night and Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Coniglio
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 7, 1:36 PM EDT---------------
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