LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 5:26 AM CST ...New UPDATE...043
FXUS64 KLIX 051126
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
526 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Brought the wind advisory to start at 6am this morning as winds
are already beginning to move into the area. After sunrise, these
winds should be in full swing with gusts to 35mph and a few higher
readings would not be surprising either.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Very strong spring like frontal passage yesterday. Don't need any
more of those, but unfortunately we are starting that season and it
is likely that we see at least one or more of these over the next
several months. This system is exiting stage right but there is the
H7 thermal trough that is moving through today possibly bringing
some clouds to the northern portion of the area for a short time.
Most of the area will enjoy sunny skies and cool dry conditions. A
freeze is not expected tonight but temps will get into the mid 30s
so there is the possibility that an isolated location just touch
32F. The highest probability of this occurring is 40% for and
particular location in the counties/parishes along the east-west
MS/LA line. Winds will be NW at 20mph with gusts to 30mph today once
we mix out, but several locations should be fully capable of 25mph
with gusts to 35mph and probabilities are around 60% for some areas,
so we will be bringing up a wind advisory for today but cut this off
right at sunset since we should decouple rapidly. So we are not done
with the wind yet, but it won't be as bad as yesterday and no storms
with it either. No other issues expected. Thu will be a very nice
day as winds will remain weak to light and variable through the day
coming around to southerly by evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Winds will rise to around 10mph out of the south for Friday bringing
some moisture back to the area for the weekend when our next system
is expected to move through. A polar front will be moving through
from southern Canada which we should begin to see on the maps Fri.
By Fri night into Sat a sfc low should begin to develop over TX and
move east along this fronts thermal boundary connecting the sfc with
the upper level jet which will cause a large area of sh/ts to break
out. We will need to get closer to the event to untangle the
variables but the paramaters associated with this one does not look
any thing near what this last one had. But numbers do support a
marginally supportive environment for severe by Sat
afternoon/evening. This mainly looks like a wet system for someone
as winds parallel the frontal boundary through the column. The front
should move through by Sat night but we don't clear out as a low
deck of clouds deep enough to produce some light rain should linger
well into Sunday. We should clear out Monday with nice conditions
Tue then return flow ahead of the next system starts Wed of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 258 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
VFR for all sites. MCB could have some cigs that move through
temporarily today which could bring this site to MVFR but the
chances of this deck moving over MCB are too low for now to show in
taf set.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
West winds will gradually become NW later today but will remain
elevated until Thu morning. Winds will rapidly ease Thu as a sfc
high moves over the northern gulf. But this will be quick and the
sfc high will be east of the area late Thu bringing return flow back
to the coastal waters. Wind speeds will quickly move back up to
around 20kt by Thu night into Fri.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 62 35 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 65 37 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 67 39 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 66 45 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 65 41 65 48 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 69 38 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 5:26 AM CST ...New UPDATE...---------------
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