JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 11:10 PM EST000
FXUS63 KJKL 060410
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1110 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain has changed to snow this evening and will continue
overnight. Any remaining snow tapers off Thursday morning. Any
accumulation should be less than an inch, with the exception of
as much as two inches on ridges in near the Virginia border.
- Milder temperatures return to finish the week, along with an
expectation of rain.
- Well above normal temperatures are expected by the middle of
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
The evening surface analysis shows the cold front has moved
through and temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s. A mid-
level wave is pushing across the area and this is helping to kick
off snow showers across eastern Kentucky. Overall these have been
light and more snow grains or pellets at times as we struggle to
see much in the way of moisture within the DGZ. Overall only minor
changes needed for this update.
UPDATE Issued at 718 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
The evening surface analysis shows cold front has mostly pushed
through the region. This is ushering in colder airmass from west
to east this evening. Therefore much of the shower activity is
beginning to change to a rain/snow mix or all snow in some parts
of the area. We have even had reports of graupel or snow pellets
falling in some locations this evening. The impacts from this
will be minimal given the warm temperatures going into this event.
The winds have slackened off below advisory criteria this evening
and therefore the advisory was allowed to expire. Nonetheless,
the winds will remain gusty in the 15-30 mph range through the
night. Overall only minor changes were needed to align grids with
the latest obs and trends. Outside this minor update overall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 511 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
A large, deep low pressure system is centered over the Great Lakes
region late today, moving northeast. The tight pressure gradient
around the low brought wind gust around 40 mph to many places in
eastern KY today. A few gusts near 40 were still occurring late
today, but they were overall weakening. That slow trend should
continue, and it's expected that the Wind Advisory will be able
to run its course and expire early this evening.
Moisture in the large comma head region of the departing system is
moving back into our area from the northwest. Showers have already
affected most places, and a transition to more of a stratiform or
stratiform/shower hybrid type precip is expected this evening.
Cold air advection has also been underway, and our atmosphere will
become cold enough for rain to change to snow this evening
(although, the temperature profile suggests that the moisture
will only extend minimally into the dendritic growth zone). The
snow then tapers off overnight and on Thursday morning. Warm
ground and the lack of heavy precipitation will limit snow
accumulation. Most places should see less than an inch (mainly on
grass or elevated surfaces), but favored upslope areas of Harlan
and Letcher counties could get an inch or two, especially the
colder higher elevations. The Winter Weather Advisory already in
place is allowed to continue in those two counties.
As the storm system departs, surface ridging builds in from the
west under flattening flow aloft on Thursday and Thursday night.
This will eventually allow clouds to dissolve during the day.
However, the chilly air mass and delayed return of sunshine should
keep temperatures no warmer than 40s.
Modest warm air advection returns by Thursday night, with mostly
clear skies to start. This will set us up for ridge/valley
temperature differences to develop in the evening. However, the
development of the regime will probably become tempered during
the night as mid/high level clouds thicken in advance of the next
storm system and hinder radiating.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
Zonal flow develops Friday across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and
will bring a return to near normal temperatures, with highs
generally in the 50s. Clouds will generally be on the increase
through the day, with rain showers moving into the area ahead of an
upper disturbance and cold front that will cross the area Saturday
morning. Flow will remain fairly zonal behind this system, so cold
air on the back side of this disturbance/front will be limited. For
the remainder of the weekend the question then becomes how close
does a southern stream system graze southeastern Kentucky on its far
northern extent. Will follow the NBM in depicting low-end PoPs
across southeastern Kentucky Saturday night into Sunday, with drier
and mid-level ridging moving into the region from the west by
Monday.
A significant warm-up will take place through at least the first
half of next week as eastern Kentucky will reside to the south of a
strong zonal jet streak, with increasing south to southwesterly
low-level flow ahead of the next system to likely move toward the
area just beyond the end of the long-term in the Thursday time
frame. This will allow temperatures to rise progressively higher
each day to well above normal levels by the middle of next week,
with 60s for highs Monday rising into the 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday. The NBM probabilistic envelope even suggest ~40% chance
of reaching 80 degrees next Wednesday at KJKL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
We are seeing a mix of VFR to MVFR CIGs across the TAF sites this
evening. A cold front has passed to the east and winds have
slackened off some this evening. This cold front is ushering in a
colder airmass into the region and will change any lingering rain
showers over to snow showers through the evening into tonight. The
stratus will remain stuck underneath strengthening inversion
tonight keeping MVFR or lower CIGs going into Thursday and finally
mixing out late in the TAF period. The winds have become more
westerly and will remain that way through the TAF period. The
winds will remain gusty at times tonight with gusts of 25-30
knots, but these will slacken into the 20-25 knot range as we move
toward Thursday morning and into the remainder of Thursday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ088-118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 11:10 PM EST---------------
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