JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 5:11 PM EST634
FXUS63 KJKL 052211
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
511 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts up to 40 mph may occur through early evening.
- Any rain will change to snow this evening and likely continue
overnight. Any remaining snow tapers off Thursday morning. Any
accumulation should be less than an inch, with the exception of
as much as two inches on ridges in near the Virginia border.
- Milder temperatures return to finish the week, along with an
expectation of rain.
- Well above normal temperatures are expected by the middle of
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 511 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
A large, deep low pressure system is centered over the Great Lakes
region late today, moving northeast. The tight pressure gradient
around the low brought wind gust around 40 mph to many places in
eastern KY today. A few gusts near 40 were still occurring late
today, but they were overall weakening. That slow trend should
continue, and it's expected that the Wind Advisory will be able
to run its course and expire early this evening.
Moisture in the large comma head region of the departing system is
moving back into our area from the northwest. Showers have already
affected most places, and a transition to more of a stratiform or
stratiform/shower hybrid type precip is expected this evening.
Cold air advection has also been underway, and our atmosphere will
become cold enough for rain to change to snow this evening
(although, the temperature profile suggests that the moisture
will only extend minimally into the dendritic growth zone). The
snow then tapers off overnight and on Thursday morning. Warm
ground and the lack of heavy precipitation will limit snow
accumulation. Most places should see less than an inch (mainly on
grass or elevated surfaces), but favored upslope areas of Harlan
and Letcher counties could get an inch or two, especially the
colder higher elevations. The Winter Weather Advisory already in
place is allowed to continue in those two counties.
As the storm system departs, surface ridging builds in from the
west under flattening flow aloft on Thursday and Thursday night.
This will eventually allow clouds to dissolve during the day.
However, the chilly air mass and delayed return of sunshine should
keep temperatures no warmer than 40s.
Modest warm air advection returns by Thursday night, with mostly
clear skies to start. This will set us up for ridge/valley
temperature differences to develop in the evening. However, the
development of the regime will probably become tempered during
the night as mid/high level clouds thicken in advance of the next
storm system and hinder radiating.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
Zonal flow develops Friday across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and
will bring a return to near normal temperatures, with highs
generally in the 50s. Clouds will generally be on the increase
through the day, with rain showers moving into the area ahead of an
upper disturbance and cold front that will cross the area Saturday
morning. Flow will remain fairly zonal behind this system, so cold
air on the back side of this disturbance/front will be limited. For
the remainder of the weekend the question then becomes how close
does a southern stream system graze southeastern Kentucky on its far
northern extent. Will follow the NBM in depicting low-end PoPs
across southeastern Kentucky Saturday night into Sunday, with drier
and mid-level ridging moving into the region from the west by
Monday.
A significant warm-up will take place through at least the first
half of next week as eastern Kentucky will reside to the south of a
strong zonal jet streak, with increasing south to southwesterly
low-level flow ahead of the next system to likely move toward the
area just beyond the end of the long-term in the Thursday time
frame. This will allow temperatures to rise progressively higher
each day to well above normal levels by the middle of next week,
with 60s for highs Monday rising into the 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday. The NBM probabilistic envelope even suggest ~40% chance
of reaching 80 degrees next Wednesday at KJKL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
Conditions were largely VFR at the start of the period, but MVFR
conditions (mainly due to ceilings) were arriving from the west.
Showers were also occurring in some locations. MVFR conditions are
forecast to develop eastward over the region during the afternoon,
and showers are expected at times until a more general light rain
develops toward evening. The rain will transition to snow between
about 00Z and 03Z, but remain light. Snow is expected taper off
early Thursday morning, but mainly MVFR ceilings will linger
through most if not all of the remainder of the period.
Southwest to west winds will be brisk and gusty through the
period, sustained mostly from 10-20 kts. Gusts are forecast top 30
kts at times into tonight, but should taper to gusts of 20-25 kts
by dawn.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ088-118.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 5:11 PM EST---------------
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