ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 4, 9:26 PM EST105
FXUS61 KILN 050226
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
926 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure moving from the middle Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes will provide above normal temperatures,
periods of showers, and gusty winds tonight. Additional
precipitation will accompany a cold front late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Near to below normal temperatures will arrive
late week and persist into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As rain begins to spread into the forecast area, a 60-80 knot
850mb low level jet is also beginning to spread north into the
area. Thermodynamic profiles are a little more favorable for
strong winds to mix to the surface in areas like southern
Kentucky, where some >50 MPH gusts are beginning to be
observed. This will be more difficult to achieve in the ILN CWA,
but any brief periods of mixing that occur could allow for some
40-50 MPH gusts during the window of the wind advisory (now
through 5AM).
Also of interest is that there will be cooling occurring at the
top of the boundary layer tomorrow morning, allowing for a more
well-mixed boundary layer to develop tomorrow. Within this more
favorable thermodynamic environment, BUFKIT momentum transfer
is suggesting some mid to upper 30 knot range gusts. If there is
even a slight increase in the signal for this, then it is
possible the wind advisory may need to be extended through the
day tomorrow.
In terms of deeper-layer thermodynamics, soundings do not look
overly favorable for thunder during the overnight hours. There
is some weak MUCAPE showing up on models during the 10Z-20Z
time frame tomorrow as the mid and upper levels cool, but
confidence is not high enough to include thunder tomorrow
morning/afternoon with this update. Even in the absence of
thunder, could see some convective / cellular elements develop.
Previous discussion >
Strong low pressure will move from northern Missouri into
northern Illinois tonight. Ahead of the low, an occluding
frontal system will be preceded by a strong 850mb low level jet
of 60-80 knots nosing north into middle Ohio Valley. Forced
ascent will cause showers tonight... in particular from late
evening into the early morning. Main concern is the potential
for strong wind gusts to make it down to the surface during
these showers... especially with some evaporative cooling. While
winds gusts exceeding advisory criteria are not expected to
occur continuously overnight... there will likely be isolated
gusts approaching 45-50 mph around the convection. Temperatures
will only drop into the 50s by sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry slot behind the occluded boundary will offer a reprieve in
the precipitation Wednesday morning before the main cold front
approaches the region late in the day. Gusty winds will persist
in the well-mixed dry slot. Showers are likely to increase again
by afternoon, and temperatures will begin to fall behind the
front in the evening.
Cold air advection will be in place Wednesday night. Falling
temperatures could cause a short period of snow showers after
midnight, with perhaps minor/brief accumulations on grassy
surfaces east of Interstate 75. Low temperatures will reach
into the upper 20s by morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will start to build in at the beginning of the period,
although the pressure gradient will still be sufficient for some
gusty winds on Thursday. The high will translate across the region
on Thursday night and move off to the east on Friday.
Next system will approach from the west on Friday. A warm air
advection wing will develop into areas generally north of I-70,
particularly west central Ohio. And while there is some uncertainty
on the track of the surface low, mid level forcing keeps better
chance of precipitation in northern counties even into Friday night.
With temperatures cooling, precipitation could change to snow before
ending with any accumulations looking light at this point.
High pressure will build in behind this system. The high will get
suppressed south and east over the weekend as another system passes
well north of the area. Southerly flow will become established early
next week leading to a warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The TAF period will be characterized by occasional chances for
rain, very gusty winds, and eventually some lowering
visibilities and ceilings.
The first round of showers, along with some wind gusts into the
30-40 knot range, will occur late tonight through early
Wednesday morning. LLWS will also be occurring at this time. In
general, conditions will be VFR during this period, though some
MVFR visibilities are possible in any heavier rain.
There will be a diminishing in the rain for a while, before more
showers move in during the late morning through afternoon
Wednesday. This will also come with another increase in wind
gusts, with 30-40 knot gusts occurring again. This time, there
will be reductions in visibility (MVFR to possibly IFR) and
ceilings (eventually IFR at all TAF sites).
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions will continue through Thursday.
MVFR conditions are possible again Friday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../Hatzos
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hatzos
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 4, 9:26 PM EST---------------
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