IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 11:15 AM EST972
FXUS63 KIWX 021615
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1115 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions are expected through Monday with slowly warming
temperatures.
- Widespread rain and windy conditions are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the 50s.
- Cooler to end the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
Surface high pressure currently settling into the region downstream
of large ridge over the US and Canadian Rockies. Some lake clouds
will persist in our NE zones through the morning but expect
increasing sun through the day as winds continue to back and dry air
advects east. Minor, late-day WAA pushes 850mb temps to almost -10C
and expect highs to make a run at upper 30s despite cold start. WAA
steadily increases into Monday yielding increasing temps and a
chance for some light precip Mon afternoon. Precip types are tricky
in this scenario. Low levels remain on the dry side and it is highly
questionable if overall gentle ~290K isentropic upglide will be
sufficient to generate measurable precip. Also, because the low
levels are so dry, wet bulb cooling could support frozen or freezing
precip types despite anticipated highs being well into the 40s.
Inherited a dry (10% PoP) forecast and will hold with that but
introduce a sprinkle mention. Current thinking is that if there is
light precip it will be late enough that surface temps will be well
above freezing and prevent any freezing/impacts despite possibly
subfreezing wet bulb temps. Will keep an eye on this part of the
forecast though.
More prominent low level theta-e surge arrives early Tue AM
associated with deep upper low ejecting out of the southwest CONUS.
This will be the first of several rounds of rain associated with
this system. After a lull during the day Tue the best chance for
widespread moderate rain arrives Tue evening. Strong UVM associated
with approaching upper low and very moist conditions thanks to
southerly 60 kt LLJ will support widespread rain and perhaps some
embedded thunder. The one big limiting factor for heavy rain will be
the overall track/evolution of this system favors a strong midlevel
dry slot moving into our area Tue night which will quickly shut off
the heaviest rain. Showers will continue through the day Wed but any
additional rain on the backside of departing low will be on the
light side. Ground remains partially frozen and some rivers are
still running a little high from recent snowmelt but at this point
it appears rain will not be heavy enough to cause any substantive
flooding concerns. Precip will likely end as some brief snow Wed
night with minimal accumulation. The other aspect of this system
will be strong winds expected Tue night behind the occluded front
and again Wed night in strong CAA regime.
Mild conditions expected Tue and Wed with highs in the 50s but we
quickly drop back into the 30s for Thu. Another system is possible
Fri night/Sat but details are still very much up in the air at this
time range.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
VFR through the period. Leftover stratocu near 4 kft should
clear out by mid-late afternoon as dry subsident air continues
to advect in. West winds up to near 10 knots will become light
and variable tonight as high pressure builds in. Return
southerly flow then kicks in tomorrow with increasing mid level
clouds.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 11:15 AM EST---------------
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