BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 6:55 PM EST178
FXUS61 KBOX 012355
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
655 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and much colder weather tonight into Sunday with winds easing
by Monday...but it still will be rather cold. A warming trend starts
Tuesday with a return to mild and spring-like temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday. A frontal system approaching from the west will bring
a period of soaking rain and potentially strong southerly wind gusts
later Wednesday into early Thursday. Dry, but blustery and
seasonably cold weather will return Friday and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* Windy & turning much colder tonight
* Overnight lows mainly in the teens
* Wind Chills: -10 to -5 high terrain & 0 to 10 above elsewhere
Previous forecast is on track. The powerful cold front that
brought the earlier convective brief rain/snow showers was about
to cross the Cape/Islands within an hour. While dry weather will
prevail the rest of the night...the main story will be the much
colder and windy weather overnight. Northwest wind gusts of 25
to 40 mph will usher in much colder 925T on the order of -17C
to -19C by daybreak. The strong winds will keep temps from
completely bottoming out...most locations should be in the teens
by daybreak. The strong winds will result in wind chills
dropping to between 10 below and 5 below in the high
terrain...to between 0 and 10 degrees in the lower elevations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Below normal temperatures Sunday with wind chills making it
feel like single digits to teens.
Sunday:
Cold morning in store for Sunday with wind chills in the single
digits to as low as negative teens for the interior high elevations.
It will be dry and cold Sunday with below normal high temperatures
in the 20s. Blustery conditions continue, although not as gusty as
Saturday evening with NW winds gusts 25-30 mph. Winds gradually
decrease through the afternoon as the pressure gradient eases. With
the breezier conditions, this will make temperatures feel more like
the teens for most areas while higher elevation areas will feel like
single digits with wind.
Sunday Night:
Another cold night Sunday night under a cold airmass. Radiational
cooling will be supported with previous elevated winds trending
downward by the evening and minimal cloud cover. Temperatures drop
into the single digits to low teens across the interior with low
single digits for the higher elevations. Closer to the coast,
areas drop into the low to mid teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry & still unseasonably cold Mon with highs around 30/lower 30s
* Temps moderate significantly Tue...Highs in the 40s to near 50
* Unseasonably mild Wed/Thu...Highs in the 50s & perhaps even near 60
* Period of soaking rain/strong winds later Wed into Thu
* Mainly dry but blustery & seasonable chilly weather returns Fri/Sat
Details...
Monday...
The upper level trough axis shifts east of the region with surface
high pressure in control of our weather for Mon. This will result in
plenty of sunshine...but temperatures will still be running
unseasonably cold for early March. Highs Mon should mainly be around
30/lower 30s...but wind chills will not be as bad as Sun given less
wind.
Monday night and Tuesday...
The ridge of high pressure will still be in control of our weather
Mon night. This will provide a good night of radiational cooling and
one more very cold night before we warm-up. Low temps will mainly be
in the teens with perhaps a few high single digit readings in the
normally coldest spots of western MA. The ridge of high pressure to
our south will move further east by Tue. This will allow a return SW
flow of significantly milder air to work into southern New England.
Highs Tue should recover well into the 40s with perhaps even a few
spots flirting with 50.
Wednesday and Thursday...
A deep surface trough across the midwest will begin to lift
northeast by the middle of next week. In response...a southerly flow
of unseasonably mild/moist air will work northward into southern New
England ahead of this shortwave. Highs will probably reach into the
50s Wed and especially Thu with perhaps a few spots around 60.
This will be accompanied by a period of soaking rain along with the
potential for a around of strong southerly wind gusts. Timing still
tricky...but thinking late Wed into early Thu as the best shot for
the widespread rain. Pwats increase to over 1" which is 2-3 standard
deviations above normal for this time of year. In addition...a
southerly LLJ that is expected to be 3 to 4 standard deviations
above normal. Not only is the forcing/high Pwat plume favorable for
a period of heavy rain...strong southerly wind gusts are also
possible for a time. While there will be an inversion...depending on
how warm surface temps are able to get at the surface we will need
to watch for a period of strong southerly wind gusts. We also can
not rule out some minor coastal flooding along the south
coast...depending on timing and how strong the surface winds get.
For what its worth...the CIPS analogs are indicated some probs of
40+ knot wind gusts probs. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50" with
locally higher amounts certainly seem reasonable based on the
ingredients mentioned above.
Friday and Saturday...
Low pressure will have lifted into the Canadian Maritimes by
Fri/Sat. The result will be drier, but blustery and seasonably cold
weather returning to southern New England.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight and Sunday...High Confidence.
VFR. NW wind gusts 25-35 kt.
Sunday night...High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds slowly diminishing.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with
local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 40 kt. SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Sunday...High Confidence.
A strong cold front will bring a wind shift to WNW by this
evening with near gale force gusts to 35 kt. Winds slowly
diminish Sun. Seas build to 6-8 ft over southern waters with
rough seas over the waters into Sunday. The cold air moving over
the waters with strong winds and wave action will result in
freezing spray developing late tonight into Sunday. A freezing
spray advisory was issued for NE MA waters where areas of
moderate freezing spray is possible.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Wednesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230-250-251-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231>237.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
ANZ250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Mensch
MARINE...Frank/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 6:55 PM EST----------------
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