PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 5:29 PM EST334
FXUS61 KPBZ 012229
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
529 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers this afternoon giving way to dry weather
tonight. Lows will dip into the teens with single digit wind
chills. Dry weather prevails Sunday through early next week
under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered snow showers this afternoon.
- Temperatures falling through tonight with lows in the teens.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The cold front has now cleared the area with the upper trough
axis swinging through. The loss of surface forcing has resulted
in snow showers taking on a lighter, scattered nature as cold
air aloft settles in with the trough and low level lapse rates
remain steep. This will promote the continuation of light snow
showers through the early evening hours with minimal additional
accumulation. The snow squall parameter ramps back up this
afternoon supported by the steep lapse rates and cold air aloft,
but this is likely overdone with moisture becoming increasingly
sparse as significantly drier air is advecting in with dew
points upstream in the low teens and single digits. This,
coupled with lowering inversion heights, will gradually cut off
the mixing heights below the DGZ tonight and shut down the snow
showers.
Cloud coverage will erode as drier mid-level air works
in and it will be quite a chilly evening with lows dipping into
the teens areawide. A tight gradient behind the front will maintain
gusts up to 30-35 mph this afternoon and relaxing some this
evening as high pressure approaches. Wind chills will be as low
as the single digits in the lowlands with values into the
negative single digits in the higher elevations. Eastern Tucker
may get close to advisory criteria, but it looks to remain
confined to the highest of elevations and be spotty, so in
coordination with other offices have held off on headlines for
now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather prevails.
- Cold Sunday with moderating temperatures on Monday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure settles in on Sunday and remains dominant through
Tuesday with dry weather and moderating temperatures. The upper
trough and cold air aloft hang around on Sunday and northwesterly
gradient flow will keep highs likely below freezing for the northern
half of the area and the ridges with southeast OH/northern WV
topping out in the mid 30s.
The trough finally exits on Monday as an upper ridge establishes and
the surface high migrates east. Low level flow will back
southwesterly as warm advection ensues. Highs Monday will top out
about 10 degrees warmer than Sunday across the board in the low 40s
with a good deal of sun.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain returns Tuesday night.
- Temperatures climb to the 60s by Wednesday and take a tumble to
close the week.
- Rain changes to snow on Thursday then dry Friday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The upper ridge axis will traverse overhead on Tuesday downstream of
a digging low across the Plains. Locally, this will maintain a
mostly dry, but cloudy, day ahead of widespread rain arriving late
Tuesday. Strong southwest flow will push high temperatures into the
50s for most all of the area despite the increased cloud coverage.
Rain then arrives in the evening hours, though ensembles exhibit
some deviation in regard to timing with subtle differences in the
speed of the upper low. All agree that it transitions to an open
wave as it ejects out of the Plains which may suggest a solution
with a quicker progression could be the more likely one. Those
clusters erring more progressive introduce warm advection driven
rain Tuesday evening, but if it trends slower, it could hold off
until after midnight. Either way, increasing moisture looks good for
early March with ensemble probs for PWATs >1" at 40-70% (90th
percentile climatology for the day is 0.73"). Rain looks to remain
dominant through most of the day Wednesday with broad synoptic
forcing overspreading the area downstream of the trough. Ensembles
hint at some evidence of dry slotting but tough to say at this point
if it will be enough to generate some instability for thunder. QPF
on the low end sits around a quarter of an inch while the high end
suggests around 1", so at least a good wetting rain seems increasing
probability, and it'll likely take capitalization on some marginal
instability to maximize the totals.
A transition to snow is likely on the backside as cold air advances
in behind the departing trough. A quicker departure advertised by a
GEPS dominant solution suggests a transition in the early overnight
hours Wednesday night while most others hold off a bit longer. Some
accumulation is possible in the ridges, but too soon to discuss
specifics on that.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Passage of the 500mb trough axis may sustain scattered light
snow showers for a few hours after TAF issuance, but the shower
intensity/coverage is expected to decline amid dry
advection/subsidence. Loss of mixing and waning pressure
gradients should also allow winds to slowly subside (but
maintain an occasional 10-20kt gust) overnight. VFR stratocu is
favored overnight but the clash of dry air/subsidence with lake
feeds may create ebbs and flows between sct to bkn conditions.
Any restrictions will develop mainly around FKL/DUJ (60-80%
probability) and occur approximately between 09z-15z.
High pressure and subsidence will slowly erode VFR stratocu
through Sunday afternoon, with some mixing yielding a brief
period of bkn lower cigs and occasional gusts up to 20kts.
Outlook...
There is high confidence (near 100%) of VFR under the influence
of high pressure through Tuesday evening, though an approaching
system may nudge rain showers towards eastern Ohio that
afternoon.
Late Tuesday into Wednesday will see the passage of said low
pressure system and the high confidence for rain and
restrictions with 50-80% probability for afternoon wind gusts
greater than 30kts Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 5:29 PM EST---------------
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