LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 9:56 PM CST ...New AVIATION...538
FXUS64 KLIX 250356
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
956 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Low stratus continues to gradually filter out as the elongated
surface trough over the northern Gulf continues to drift eastward.
This is allowing sunshine to break out over the area, particularly
over more inland areas. Despite the cloud cover today, temps are
reaching the low to mid 60s over most areas. No appreciable air mass
change will be occurring on the backside of this surface trough
other than light northerly winds allowing for subtle filtering in of
drier air. These light northerlies on the eastern flank of the
surface and the lingering cloud cover have been the primary
components to my doubts in dense fog occurring over the area though
radiation fog with visibilities of 1 to 3 miles will still remain a
possibility (20-40% chance per SREF/HREF guidance). More likely we
could see more overnight stratus on the backside of this surface
trough with some of it building down at times. This is supported by
forecast soundings showing a higher, less steep temperature
inversion. Given this, have held off on Dense Fog Advisory with this
forecast package. A more short-fused, targeted advisory for dense
fog could be issued later tonight if forecast confidence increases.
Otherwise, fairly benign conditions with light winds and surface
high pressure through the day on Tuesday. Dense radiation fog
appears to be more likely on Tuesday night with the surface high
more firmly overhead and clear skies aiding in more efficient
cooling. This is reflected in forecast model soundings showing a
textbook steep near-surface temperature inversion for 12Z Wednesday
along the I-12 corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Seasonably warm temperatures will stick around through
the week with highs in the 70s. More advective properties will make
fog possible again on Thursday morning, but timing of the front and
cloud cover creates more uncertainties than Wednesday. During the
day Thursday, a shortwave trough will dive across the eastern CONUS
with the best forcing for ascent well off to our north and east.
This in addition to fairly little moisture advection ahead of the
frontal boundary following in its wake will mean fairly meager
rainfall associated with it. Carrying slight chance PoPs on Thursday
in association with this front, but fairly pessimistic on impacts to
evening plans with exception to maybe the MS coast where PoPs are
locally higher. Breezy conditions will also be ongoing behind this
front, but gusts will be generally below 25 mph for land areas.
The forecast looks fairly ideal in the wake of this system in time
for Mardi Gras weekend with highs in the 70s and fairly comfortable
dew point temperatures in the low 50s. We'll have to keep an eye on
our next system with a pattern change at the beginning of next week
though which could increase rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 925 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Conditions will drop
to LIFR and IFR overnight tonight through mid-morning at BTR,
MCB, ASD, and HDC due to fog. Conditions will gradually to MVFR
throughout the daytime hours at all area airports. MSW
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
The elongated surface trough over the northern Gulf that is
producing increased winds and seas that are hazardous to small
crafts is slowly drifting off to the east. Winds and seas will
gradually calm through this evening and into midweek as the
pressure gradient breaks down and surface high pressure moves
overhead. The next impacts will then be from a frontal system
moving through the coastal waters on Thursday. Winds and seas will
increase and become hazardous to small crafts with gusts upwards
of 20 to 25 knots. Surface high pressure will then follow it over
the weekend, allowing seas to gradually calm once again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 46 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 49 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 49 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 51 70 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 49 71 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 47 74 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-071-076-079>086.
GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 9:56 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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