MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 4:18 PM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...966
FXUS64 KMOB 242218
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
418 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 418 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
The light rain area has moved off to the east of our area as the
shortwave energy associated with the upper trough over the region
shifts eastward as well. The actual upper trough axis will shift
east of our area by around midnight tonight. At the surface, low
pressure currently over the southeastern Gulf will move east across
south Florida tonight and then off into the southern Atlantic Ocean
by area Tuesday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will build east
across our area Tonight through Tuesday night. The only forecast
concern will be the potential for some patchy fog tonight, and
probably Tuesday night as well, as winds decrease and skies clear
resulting in good radiational cooling over moist soils (as almost
all locations received at least 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rainfall over
the past 24 hours). Fog guidance is not particularly aggressive with
dense fog potential, but short term evening/overnight trends will
have to be monitored for potential Dense Fog Advisory. Lows tonight
ranging from the low 40s well inland to the upper 40s along and just
south of the I-10 corridor (and some lower 50s along the immediate
coast). Highs on Tuesday in the lower 70s for all locations. Tuesday
night lows should be almost identical to those of tonight. DS/12
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 418 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
At the start of the period, an upper-level trough over the north-
central US will dig to the southeast, moving into the western
Atlantic by Thursday night. In response, a weak cold front will
approach and push through the local region on Thursday. Rain
chances do increase as the front moves through, however, with weak
forcing and limited moisture return, decided to cap PoPs at
around 20-30 percent. We dry out once again for Friday and through
the weekend as a zonal to northwesterly flow pattern aloft sets
up overhead and high pressure builds in. A weakening southern
stream shortwave may move overhead on Monday, however, the quality
of moisture return is still rather questionable at this time.
Therefore, decided to lean towards the drier solutions for the
current forecast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper
70s across the area, with lows in the 50s. Temperatures dip a bit
for Thursday and Friday as the weak front moves through. Highs by
Friday will be in the upper 60s and lows Thursday and Friday
nights will dip into the low to mid 40s. Temperatures gradually
climb through the remainder of the period. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 418 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Low pressure over the southeastern Gulf late this afternoon will
north central Gulf will move east across south Florida tonight and
then off into the southern Atlantic Ocean by area Tuesday. Seas
remain elevated to around 7 feet well offshore this evening, so the
SCA continues until midnight. Surface high pressure will build east
across the marine area late tonight through Tuesday night with light
winds and small seas expected through most of that period. Winds
will eventually become more southerly again by Wednesday, before
shifting back offshore once again on Thursday and increasing
slightly with the passage of another weak front. Some patchy fog is
expected over the near shore waters each night. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 47 73 46 74 53 72 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0
Pensacola 50 72 50 72 56 73 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 0
Destin 52 71 53 70 58 71 49 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 0
Evergreen 42 73 42 78 49 73 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 10 0
Waynesboro 43 71 42 76 50 70 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0
Camden 41 70 42 76 50 70 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 10 0
Crestview 44 75 44 76 50 74 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 4:18 PM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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