PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:02 PM CST730
FXUS63 KPAH 282102
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
302 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder temperatures will arrive for the weekend with most
locations running about 10 degrees below normal.
- Temperatures will warm up for early next week as the next
system approaches from the Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible by Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening.
- Any heavy rainfall with thunderstorms next week will increase
the chances for Flash Flooding across the area, especially
with continued saturated soils and elevated river levels.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
Gusty winds have been observed across the entire Quad State this
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. In fact, many
locations are gusting around 30 to 35 mph from the southwest. The
wind will shift to the west then northwest later this evening.
Relative humidity values have dropped into the teens to low 20s over
the Ozark Foothills, with higher RHs noted farther east under sunny
skies.
The dry cold front will pass through the area this evening, allowing
for cooler temperatures over the weekend as winds shift to the
north. To help keep temperatures much cooler, the Quad State will be
under an upper-level trough and northwest flow for through Sunday.
Surface high pressure will remain in place keeping dry conditions in
place. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s.
There may be a weak/decaying system that moves into the area Sunday
night into Monday bringing a chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms, but the next feature that will likely be more
impactful is expected to arrive for Tuesday into Tuesday night. A
warm front is expected to lift north of the area Tuesday morning,
followed quickly by a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening as the
surface low treks just northwest of our CWA. The system would have
ample moisture to work with from the Gulf along with some fairly
strong upper-level jet energy. Digging a bit deeper, deep layer
shear looks to be fairly impressive around 40kt + along with much
steeper lapse rates leading to increasing instability across the
area. It's a bit early to get into specifics (more than already
mentioned anyway); however, all threats appear reasonable with
respect to severe weather Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. In
fact, the SPC has already placed the area under a 30 percent risk
for Tuesday into Tuesday night! On top of the severe potential, very
moist ground soils along with the potential for heavy rainfall of 1-
3 inches in heavy downpours could lead to flash flooding potential.
Again, out of the next 7 days, that is the time period to really
keep a close eye on!
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1021 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
Gusty southwest winds today will shift to the northwest this
evening through Saturday. Gusts could reach the 25-30kt range
this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through this
TAF issuance.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:02 PM CST---------------
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