JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 2:52 PM EST071
FXUS63 KJKL 271952
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
252 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will move through the area early this morning with
a few showers.
- Gusty showers and possibly a thunderstorm can be expected again
late this afternoon into the evening with another passing
disturbance. Small hail is a potential with the most intense
activity.
- The next significant rain chances, and potentially some
thunderstorms, will come Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM EST THU FEB 27 2025
Little to no changes made to the grids aside from loading in the
latest surface observations and adjusting those trends moving
forward. The morning text and radio products were updated to
reflect the changes. Grids have been saved and sent.
UPDATE Issued at 630 AM EST THU FEB 27 2025
The front is progressing steadily through the area with its
showers now clear of the northwest half of the JKL CWA. As such,
no significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 455 AM EST THU FEB 27 2025
09Z sfc analysis shows a fairly strong area of low pressure
lifting out of the northern Ohio Valley. This is dragging a cold
front through Kentucky early this morning with gusty rain showers
accompanying it - more extensive for the northern parts of the JKL
CWA ATTM. This boundary is switching the winds to the west and
northwest at 5 to 10 mph away from the southwest at similar
speeds in advance of the boundary. It is also cooling the air
with the rain and returning cooler air in its wake. Currently,
temperatures vary from near 50 degrees in the northwest to the
upper 50s and lower 60s on the eastern ridges ahead of the showers
and front. A few of the sheltered valleys area running colder - in
the mid 40s from an earlier drop off in temperatures during the
evening. Meanwhile, dewpoints range from the upper 40s northwest
to the mid 30s in the far east before the showers arrive. A few of
these have been able to tap into the stronger winds aloft to
bring down gusty winds as high as 40 mph early this morning - an
SPS is in effect addressing this through 6 am.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a trough digging through the eastern
parts of the Ohio Valley this morning bringing falling 5h heights
and an initial impulse of mid level energy. Later this evening
the core of this negative anomaly pushes through the area as the
5h trough axis crosses eastern Kentucky. Northwest flow at mid
levels follow with much weaker bits of energy passing through the
region overnight and into Friday. However, another substantial
trough then heads this way from the Upper Midwest later Friday
flattening the flow and bringing more energy and height falls to
the Ohio Valley that night. The small model spread aloft supported
using the NBM the starting point for the forecast grids, though
with some adjustments to incorporate the latest CAMs guidance into
the PoPs through tonight.
Sensible weather features a much cooler day in the wake of this
morning's cold frontal passage. It also will be briefly active
late this afternoon and into the evening as the better support
aloft moves into this part of the state along with some skinny
CAPE allowing for a threat of thunderstorms with enough depth for
small hail. The best shot at seeing these thunderstorms will be
generally for the northeast parts of the area, but they cannot be
ruled out just about anywhere in eastern Kentucky this evening.
Drier and cooler weather follows with enough lingering low and mid
level moisture around tonight to limit radiational cooling while
the CAA continues in the wake of the main system moving out of
the area to the east. After a chilly start for Friday morning,
ample sunshine and dry conditions will allow temperatures to
rebound into the mid and upper 50s for highs - though a thicker
cloud deck starts to return from the north by evening. Winds will
also likely be higher than modeled for Friday afternoon given the
tight pressure gradient ahead of the next system.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding in some details from the latest CAMs guidance for the PoPs
into this evening. As for temperatures, did not adjust them too
far away from the NBM given the cloud concerns tonight that will
likely hinder radiational cooling and minimize our more typical
terrain effects. Did also tick the winds up this evening and also
Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM EST THU FEB 27 2025
There is good agreement with a longwave trough setup across the Ohio
Valley to begin the period. A secondary cold front will dive
southward across the Ohio Valley Saturday. This feature will bring
in a mix of rain/snow to parts of eastern Kentucky. This will
need to be watched closer in a more favorable upslope setup along
with reasonable lift noted with frontogenetical forcing around
850mb. Given the situation opted to add some slight chance of
precipitation mainly below 20 percent Saturday. After this front
exits, we will see a high pressure build east from the Plains.
This surface high will settle across the Lower Ohio Valley
Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the weather mostly
quiet through the first part of next week. This will also lead to
some colder nights, with valleys dropping back into the teens
Sunday night. However, there appears to be some disagreement
within the modeling systems. The NBM is keeping Monday dry for
now, with the various ensemble systems showing around 10 to 14
percent chance of rain.
A deeper vertically stacked low will push into the Plains Tuesday
night. This will send a warn front northward Tuesday evening. Then
eventually a line of showers and thunderstorms from west to east
across Kentucky Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The timing of
this feature will be poor for severe weather and seem like we could
get split, with the deeper convection to the north and south.
However, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty with regards
to this strong system and will still need to monitor this system
closely. The main threats would be severe weather and possibly
some flooding. This as PWATs get into the 2 to 3 standard
deviation territory. The cold front will pass by Wednesday night
into Thursday once again bringing cooler weather back to the Lower
Ohio valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST THU FEB 27 2025
Terminals are slowly beginning to improve from MVFR into the VFR.
The only sites that are still MVFR are KJKL and KSJS, but they'll
improve to VFR over the next couple of hours. An upper-level
trough will swing south toward the area and bring a renewed
chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Due to the low chances of showers and storms, opted to stick with
a PROB30 for those showers. Showers that do develop will dissipate
after 04Z. Also, with the trough, west to northwesterly winds of
sustained 10 to 15 knots and gusts from 20 to 25 are expected.
Those winds will diminish overnight to variable but another
resurgence in wind is expected again tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 2:52 PM EST---------------
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