BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 3:36 AM EST071
FXUS61 KBOX 230836
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
336 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues today with temperatures finally moderating
to normal levels for this time of year. Above normal
temperatures are anticipated for early to mid week and some
locations may reach into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. A few
spot showers are possible around Tuesday, then it gradually
turns cooler and more unsettled toward the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...
* Clouds give way to sunshine today...Highs 40-45
A ridge of high pressure to our south will result in pleasant end to
the weekend. A moisture starved shortwave crossing the region this
morning will result in a period of mid level cloudiness...but expect
increasing sunshine later this morning and especially this
afternoon. Westerly flow combined with the increasing late February
sun angle should allow high temps to overachieve the guidance a bit.
925T around -4C should allow afternoon highs to reach between 40 and
45 in most locations. Westerly winds may gust around 20 mph at
times...but overall a very pleasant afternoon is on tap for the
region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Tranquil tonight with a period of clouds...Lows in the teens/20s
* Partly sunny Mon...Highs middle-upper 40s away from the south coast
Details...
Tonight...
There is another moisture starved shortwave crossing the region
tonight...but surface high pressure will result in continued
dry/tranquil weather. We just expect this shortwave to result in a
period of mid-level cloudiness. Lows will range from the middle to
upper teens in the normally coldest outlying locations to the 20s
elsewhere.
Monday...
High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast on Mon. This will
allow a southerly flow of continued milder air into southern New
England. 925T moderate to -1C/-2C....so under partly sunshine expect
afternoon highs to overachieve a bit into the middle to upper 40s.
Southerly winds will result in temps being a few degrees cooler
along the very immediate south coast given the marine influence.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A couple of nuisance systems early next week, better chance for a
more active pattern by late next week.
* Warming trend through the middle part of the upcoming week, then
falling temperatures into next weekend.
As discussed previous few nights, next week features mainly quiet
conditions with warming temperatures, dare say it may feel a bit
like early spring? At least through midweek, there after a trend to
cooler temperatures by late week and next weekend. Until then, there
is near zonal flow in the mid-levels, allowing modified Pacific air
to cross the CONUS, leading to the warmer temperatures. Two pieces
of shortwave energy cross New England Tuesday, with better PWATs
and forcing over northern New England, should be limited to hit or
miss showers across southern New England. Approaching the end of the
week, Thursday/Friday, ridging builds across the western CONUS and
troughing in the eastern CONUS, thus leading to more unsettled
pattern to end the workweek and potentially into next weekend.
Lacking moisture and strong lift, the shortwaves that push through
New England Tuesday are likely to only have nuisance affects, mainly
spot showers. Opt'd to leave low 'Chance' POPs during this period,
these showers would be in the form of rain as temperatures turn mild
this week, more on that in a second. Late this week there is a shift
in the mid-level pattern, leading to a more activity. Period of
weather between Thursday and Friday is unsettled with a deepening
trough, surface low development, and frontal passage. Still a good
deal of uncertainty with the track of the low pressure system,
GEM/GFS have it displaced to the north, tracking across the St.
Lawrence River Valley and the ECMWF further south over southern New
England. Timing is somewhat in better agreement with a trend towards
Thursday and exiting early Friday. Given this is nearly a week away
there are many unknowns; coastal low or inland runner, cold enough
for all snow or wintry mix, and the exact timing. The unsettled
pattern looks to continue into next weekend, along with colder
temperatures, likely leading to mixed PTypes, although confidence in
exact details is low at this time. Did lean heavily on the NBM which
gave widespread 'Chance' POPs Thursday afternoon through midday
Friday. Then widespread 'Slight Chance' into Saturday/Saturday night.
As advertised, a mild stretch continues Tuesday and Wednesday, still
have uncertainty with Thursday due to the timing of the next system.
An earlier arrival would shunt potential highs while a late arrival
may allow for another spring-ish day. Enjoy it, temperatures trend
cooler Friday and into next weekend. Tuesday and Wednesday are the
warmest days with daytime highs in the mid-40s to low-50s. Now,
there is a chance we could have overperforming temperatures on
Wednesday afternoon due to clear skies/plenty of sunshine and deep
mixing of the boundary layer. If this were to occur, could easily
reach the mid-50s across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts,
that would be an added BONUS! As mentioned, Thursday is a bit of a
toss, if the next system is slower to come through, could have a 4th
mild day across the region, before the cooling trend returns Friday
into this weekend. Nightly lows this coming week are "mild" in the
upper 20s and middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. WNW 5-10 knots with gusts up to 20 kt, shift to the SW
with diminishing gusts. W winds 5-10 kt Sunday into Sunday
night.
Monday...High Confidence.
VFR. S wind 7-10 knots, gusts to 15 knots.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Monday...High Confidence.
High pressure to our south today and tonight will move off the mid-
Atlantic coast Mon. The high pressure system will remain close
enough to result in a weak enough pressure gradient to keep
winds/seas below small craft advisory criteria into Mon. We do
expect some westerly 20+ knot wind gusts today. Also...expect
southerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots by late Monday
afternoon/early evening as high pressure exits the mid-Atlantic
coast.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...Frank/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 3:36 AM EST----------------
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