LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 5:24 PM CST ...New AVIATION...265
FXUS64 KLIX 202324
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
524 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
KEY MESSAGE FOR FRIDAY MORNING:
1. Freezing conditions expected across the New Orleans metro and
Southshore with Hard Freeze conditions expected across the
Northshore and southern Mississippi. Protect people, pipes, pets,
and plants from the cold.
2. Hazardous wind chills between 15 to 25 degrees are expected
Friday morning. Wear layers and cover exposed skin to avoid symptoms
of frostbite and hypothermia.
Cold, dry, and breezy conditions continue to prevail
across the area behind the Arctic front. Gusty winds upwards of 25-
30 mph have been observed today keeping wind chills in the 30s
areawide. Winds will gradually slack off and clear skies will allow
for quick temperature falls back below freezing tonight. Hard freeze
conditions are most likely north of the I-10/12 corridor, and
overall guidance has somewhat favored the higher side of NBM suite
(near 75th percentile). This likely points to vertical mixing
inhibiting more efficient radiational cooling despite clear skies.
This is especially true for the New Orleans metro where winds off
the lake will keep winds more elevated overnight and make it harder
for it to drop much below freezing.
A quick warm up is in store tomorrow into the 50s with lower wind
speeds making it more bearable for folks to be outdoors, though
jackets will definitely still be necessary for those out on the
parade routes in the evening (wind chills still in the low 40s).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
A weak shortwave will follow the southern stream across
CONUS which will instigate subtle pressure falls across the western
Gulf. Despite a fairly dry lower atmosphere, forcing for ascent and
west-southwest flow aloft will begin to promote moistening of the
atmosphere Saturday night. Have backed off PoPs some because it
still seems pessimistic to expect measurable QPF especially north of
the I-10/12 corridor with this system. Highest PoPs remain confined
to the coast and the weak shortwave has also trended slower all
pointing to lowering PoPs below NBM guidance.
This system will not be sufficient in modifying the air mass
substantially, and gradual continued moistening of the atmosphere
will continue into next week with broader mid-level ridging
promoting a warming trend through midweek ahead of our next frontal
system on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The origin of this
next front does not appear to bringing potent Arctic air this go
around, however.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
A very dry airmass advecting into the area will keep skies largely
clear through tonight. Some mid to high level cloud cover will
move in through the day, but conditions will remain in VFR status.
Gusty north winds will also continue for the next few hours at all
of the terminals with gusts of 15 to 25 knots expected. However,
gusts will fall off at the more inland terminals after 03z. At
MSY, NEW, HUM, and GPT the gusty winds will continue into tomorrow
morning. Some easing of the winds at these terminals is expected
by the afternoon hours as high pressure becomes more centered over
the area. PG
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
Clear skies and VFR conditions through the period. Gusty northerly
winds in excess of 20-25 knots are still prevailing at most sites,
but will gradually decrease and become more northeasterly overnight
tonight. MSY and NEW will likely be the least sites to see winds
decrease due to winds off the lake.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
Stiff offshore flow continues today which has continued to
reduce tidal ranges with some areas along the MS coast seeing tides
below 0 feet of Mean Low Low Water (MLLW). Be mindful this could
impact shallow boating areas, especially within the bays and
inlets.
The pressure gradient will remain tight on the southern flank of
the surface high pressure system centered over CONUS. This
gradient will gradually weaken through Friday morning which will
allow winds and seas to become less hazardous to small crafts by
Friday evening.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
With the arctic air currently over the area, here are the
record low temperatures for today through Saturday morning at
our local sites.
Record lows today through Saturday...POR is period of record
Location (POR) Today Friday Saturday
BTR (1892) 25/2021 25/1908 24/1978
MSY (1946) 26/1978 31/1978 26/1978
MCB (1948) 19/1978 21/1978 15/1978
GPT (1893) 27/2021 29/1898 23/1978
ASD (1994) 26/2021 31/2021 28/1999
PQL (1997) 24/2015 30/2021 23/1999
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 21 49 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 26 51 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 26 52 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 31 48 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 26 51 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 25 53 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 5:24 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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