ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 3:46 AM EST224
FXUS61 KILN 240846
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
346 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow will bring a slow moderation of temperatures
through the first half of the workweek. The first chance for
light precipitation returns by tonight, with the best chance
for widespread precipitation forecast to occur Wednesday into
Wednesday night, but amounts should still be rather light.
Overall a warmer than normal and drier than normal pattern are
expected through the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Sfc high pressure slides to the E of the region today as a sfc
low passes through the nrn Great Lakes. This will allow for a
tightening pressure gradient across the area, which, in
conjunction with diurnal mixing, should allow for breezy
conditions to evolve during the daytime. Although BL mixing
won't be particularly deep (with the strongest part of the LLJ
occurring above the BL), SW winds on the order of about 15kts
will gust to around 25kts at times late morning through mid
afternoon before subsiding a bit into early evening once again.
Temps today should top out around 50 degrees (N) to mid 50s (S)
amidst steady SW sfc low. Although there will be some filtered
sunshine from time-to-time, thickening cirrus will overspread
the area through the day, so mostly cloudy conditions are
expected to prevail, particularly during the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
W flow aloft will respond with the approach of an embedded S/W
digging SE from the Northern Plains into the Mid MS Rvr Vly
tonight into Tuesday. This will result in a corresponding
strengthening of the SW LLJ, promoting some lift and moisture
advection into the area. ISO/SCT SHRA should develop and move
quickly through the area tonight into early Tuesday morning,
with only a 30-40 PoP being maintained to account for this
potential. Some spots won't see any rain, but others may receive
around a tenth of an inch.
Lows tonight bottom out in the mid to upper 30s before
rebounding into the lower 50s by Tuesday afternoon once again.
Clouds will be slow to clear out from W to E during the daytime,
but there should be increasing sunshine late in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be wedged in-between two systems Tuesday night.
The initial shortwave trough will have moved through the region and
be positioned across the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, another H5
shortwave will begin to develop across the western CONUS and
propagate eastward. Brief ridging will keep our fa dry Tuesday night
and at least the beginning of Wednesday, but rain will begin to
overspread the region by the afternoon/evening hours. QPF footprint
not overly concerning with this particular system, but a swath of
0.25" - 0.50" is certainly plausible.
Cold frontal passage from this system will result in temperatures
returning back to seasonal normals for Thursday. There may be some
lingering pcpn Thursday into Thursday night, but this will be
limited in coverage/intensity. High pressure eventually nudges in
from the southwest, resulting in fair weather conditions by Friday.
A Clipper system will eventually scoot across the Great Lakes region
on Saturday. While most of the long range models keep the pcpn just
to our north, counties along/north of I-70 may trend towards a low
PoP given the proximity of the surface low. Regardless, an uptick in
clouds can be expected for majority of our counties. Temperatures
will trend near or just above normal values on Saturday before
diving back below normal on Sunday due to CAA behind the surface
low.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Midlevel clouds across central OH near KCMH/KLCK will quickly
move to the E at the beginning of the period before
thickening/widespread cirrus overspread the region past 09z.
BKN/OVC high level clouds will linger through most, if not all,
of the period, with some mid clouds (10-12kft) also arriving
around 00z.
A gradual moistening of the profile will occur toward the end of
the period with the approach of a sfc trof. CIGs should
generally lower from VFR to MVFR toward daybreak Tuesday. Some
ISO/SCT SHRA will also be possible within the 06z-12z Tuesday
time frame as well.
Light SW winds around 6-8kts will increase out of the SW by/past
15z to around 15kts, with gusts to 20-25kts expected through 21z
before decreasing late in the day. SW winds around 10kts will
persist through the end of the period.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGs to linger into Tuesday. MVFR conditions
possible Wednesday. MVFR CIGs possible Thursday and Thursday
night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 3:46 AM EST---------------
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