IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 8:59 AM EST860
FXUS63 KIND 241359
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
859 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Steady warming early this week, with highs near or above 50 most
areas through Wednesday
- Breezy conditions this afternoon with gusts up to around 30 mph
possible
- Chance for rain tonight with a greater chance for precipitation
Wednesday into Wednesday night
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
No major changes needed to the ongoing forecasts with conditions
generally evolving as expected. Temperatures have already risen into
the upper 30s even with the widespread cloud cover, so will be
monitoring the potential for temperatures above the 75th percentile
of guidance which is currently forecast. Model soundings show the
the lapse rates for mixing will be marginal, but a 30-40kt LLJ may
occasionally mix down wind gusts to 30 mph at the surface. If
temperatures end up on the lower end of the expectations, may have
to adjust those gusts downwards this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 242 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
Warm advection aloft and the approach of an upper wave will lead to
mid and high clouds streaming across central Indiana during the day
today. There will be periods of thicker cloud cover, but overall
feel that partly cloudy should describe the day.
A thermal ridge will move into the forecast area this afternoon.
This, combined with some filtered sunshine, will lead to above
normal temperatures for the area. Given the temperature response on
Sunday, feel that even with the clouds today, temperatures will
exceed guidance. Will trend toward the 75th percentile of guidance
for temperatures today, which puts highs in the lower to middle 50s
most areas.
The upper trough will move into the area tonight. The best forcing
arrives overnight, when isentropic lift peaks and the left exit
region of an upper jet arrives. However, moisture isn't great, with
a decent dry layer aloft. Will thus keep PoPs no higher than the
chance category, with the highest PoPs overnight.
With clouds around, low temperatures will generally be in the middle
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 242 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
Tuesday and Tuesday night...
Quiet weather is expected early in the extended as upper ridging and
weak surface high pressure builds in begins a departing system.
Lingering clouds early in the day will clear out during the day due
to increasing subsidence. This along with building heights aloft
should allow for the warming trend to continue. Look for
temperatures to warm into the 50s across central Indiana. Some
locations could even reach the 60F mark though this will depend on
how quickly clouds clear out.
Wednesday through Thursday...
A low pressure system and parent trough will track through the area
Wednesday resulting in increasing rain chances. Sufficient moisture
return and increasing dynamics will likely promote precipitation,
particularly late during the day into the overnight with the passage
of a cold front. Model guidance shows little to no instability which
limits any potential for thunder. Precipitation chances begin to
taper off late Wednesday night once the disturbance shifts east.
A few models suggest light precipitation persists into Thursday with
lingering low-level moisture and another embedded wave moving
through. In addition, cold air advection will promote steepening
lapse rates during the day providing forcing for light QPF. Forecast
soundings from a few models support this scenario showing sufficient
low-level saturation and marginal forcing. Temperatures are expected
to remain warm enough for predominately light rain, but thermal
profiles could briefly support light snow or flurries mixing in due
to a deep cold layer aloft. Snow accumulations are highly unlikely
given ground temperatures will be well above freezing.
Thursday night onward...
Quiet weather conditions are expected late this week and into the
weekend. Guidance shows a low pressure system passing near the area
late Friday into Saturday, but forcing and sufficient moisture for
precipitation will likely remain to the north. Look for a gradual
cooling trend over the weekend as broad troughing across the eastern
CONUS deepens. Temperatures return to near seasonal over the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 546 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
Impacts:
- Wind gusts around 25kt mid-morning and afternoon
- Low chances for rain overnight
Discussion:
Mid and high clouds will move across the sites through the period.
During today, a tightening surface gradient will lead to sustained
winds generally in the 10 to 15kt range with gusts to around 25kt.
Some patchy light rain is possible mainly after 03Z tonight. The
rain may lower visibility to around 5-6SM, mainly at KLAF/KIND.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 8:59 AM EST---------------
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