ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 3:07 AM EST984
FXUS61 KILN 230807
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
307 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather and a slow moderation of
temperatures through Monday. Several chances for light
precipitation return by early Tuesday as a warmer weather
pattern develops through midweek. The best chance for most
widespread precipitation looks to be Wednesday evening into
Thursday, but amounts should still be rather light.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WNW mid level flow pattern will persist through the near and
short term periods, with SW flow being maintained in the LLs.
Skies have trended mostly clear across the region this morning,
with just a few cirrus and stratus drifting across the nrn OH
Vly.
Sfc flow will be light, but should stay up just enough through
sunrise that temps will be held a bit warmer than the past
several nights. Certainly a few mid/upper teen readings will be
possible in rural/sheltered spots, but most will bottom out
around 20 degrees.
A nice rebound in temps is expected today, despite some mid/high
level moisture, courtesy of a weak midlevel disturbance,
leading to some increased cloud cover across the nrn half of the
area during the late morning through the afternoon, limiting
temps to the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Closer to and S of
the OH Rvr, however, abundant sunshine will allow for temps to
top out in the mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Skies should once again be trending clearer by/past sunset,
with additional mid/high level moisture/clouds returning by the
day Monday. Lows tonight generally dip into the mid to upper
20s, with warmest conditions in EC IN and WC OH where steady SW
sfc flow should be maintained through the night, particularly
toward daybreak as the pressure gradient tightens. The coldest
spots will be sheltered/low-lying locales in the lower Scioto
Valley and NE KY.
The afternoon will feature some filtered sunshine, but temps
should still top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s, likely the
warmest day the area has seen in more than 2 weeks. This will
be accompanied by breezy conditions, with SW winds of 25-30 MPH
expected by the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday evening, southwesterly flow will still be in place across
the Ohio Valley, with broad surface high pressure drifting off the
southeast US coast. The northern jet stream will become a bit more
active through the rest of the week, with a few chances for rain.
The first will be early Tuesday morning, though computer models have
generally not been very robust with this system. PoPs will be kept
in the 20-30 percent range, mainly for the northern half of the ILN
forecast area.
The southerly to southwesterly flow will mean that temperatures will
continue to increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
be in the upper 40s to upper 50s on Tuesday, and mid 50s to lower
60s on Wednesday.
After the warm conditions in the daytime hours on Wednesday, another
shortwave will approach the area in the WNW upper flow. This wave
will also bring an associated surface cold frontal passage Wednesday
night, which will bring cooler temperatures through the rest of the
week. Total precipitation amounts from the Wednesday/Thursday system
will likely remain well below an inch, with no significant weather
impacts expected.
High pressure will move back into the area for the end of the week,
with a gradual warming trend (40s and 50s) expected by Saturday.
Confidence is low regarding the timing for the next chance for
precipitation, as there is not much model agreement in specifics as
the pattern turns more amplified going into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as some
mid/high level moisture filters back into the region during the
daytime, particularly for nrn sites. Skies should trend clearer
once again toward 06z Monday area-wide.
SW winds around 5kts will increase to around 8-10kts during the
daytime before subsiding once again to around 5kts past 00z.
OUTLOOK... MVFR conditions possible Tuesday and Wednesday. MVFR
ceilings possible Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 3:07 AM EST---------------
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