PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 7:18 PM EST837
FXUS61 KPBZ 240018
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
718 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will prevail this week, with a slight
chance of light showers on Tuesday, and more widespread
precipitation later Wednesday through Thursday with crossing
low pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and rising temperature continue
- Timing and degree of cloud cover this afternoon may limit warming
for northern zones.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Evening Update...
No major updates needed this evening as the forecast remains on
track. There is a small chance for a few brief flurries across
northern Venango and Forest counties in NW PA later this
evening, but confidence in occurrence is low and even no
impactful accumulation would be expected. More details regarding
the near term can be found in the previous discussion below.
Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure centered south of the region will maintain
dry conditions, while southerly flow (with intermittent gusts in
the teens), has increased warm advection, and daytime highs
should top out several degrees above what was observed
yesterday. The only other thing of note is increased mid level
cloud coverage mainly north of I-70 as a weak shortwave crosses.
Clearing skies in the wake of the mentioned shortwave along with
sfc winds decoupling should allow for strong radiational
cooling that fosters near normal low temperature, but higher
terrain or areas that can stay mixed may see lesser temperature
drops than forecasted.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperature favored Monday/Tuesday
- Light shower chances increase early Tuesday morning.
------------------------------------------------------------------
There is high confidence in dry weather persisting Monday as
southern ridging helps shunt the low north of Michigan due east.
Strengthening southwesterly flow through the day will aide in a
high probability (near 100%) in above normal temperature but
late date high level cloudiness may act to soften potential
rises.
A lobe of shortwave activity will develop SE of Wisconsin Monday
night and swiftly move east through the lower Great Lakes
Tuesday morning. Weak moisture depth and little surface lift
means associated precipitation is driven by jet ascent and
generally light (only 20% probability for total accumulations
exceeding 0.10 inches), with jet positioning favoring
precipitation chances over northwest PA. Though early timing may
lead to initial precipitation falling as snow, the favored
precipitation type for the event is rain as 850mb temperature
(60% likelihood) and surface temperature (90% likelihood) are
favored to be above freezing. The shortwave will exit by Tuesday
afternoon and allow surface high pressure to support dry
weather by Tuesday night. Temperature should be near seasonal
averages, with quicker than forecasted west to east cloud
clearing offering potential for slightly higher temperature.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Confidence is increasing that an advancing low pressure system
will return precip chances Thursday
-Model inconsistency is noted in the later half of the long
term
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An advancing cold front and its associated trough is likely on
Thursday. However, there still remains some uncertainty with the
timing. Earlier solutions of the front/trough have
precipitation entering the region just after dawn Thursday. Over
40% of ensemble members favor precipitation type on Thursday as
rain for a large portion of the region. However, there could be
brief periods of light wintry mix or snow with the progression
of the front late Thursday/early Friday. With warm surface
temperatures throughout the day, winter weather impacts are
considered very low.
There is a noted 10 to 15 degree surface temperature spread in
models during the time period of Saturday. What will prompt a
colder/warmer solution will likely depend on the overall
strength and position of a West Coast ridge axis. If models
trend to higher heightens over western Canada expected a cooler
pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A crossing shortwave trough is forecast to provide only mid-
level clouds as it crosses. VFR ceilings and light to nearly
calm wind at the surface can be expected overnight as surface
high pressure slowly moves east of the Appalachians.
A mostly clear sky is expected to greet sunrise, before another
round of VFR middle and high clouds arrives on WNW flow aloft.
With decent daytime heating/boundary layer mixing and a
tightening surface pressure gradient, southwest wind gusts of
between 20 and 25 knots are likely to develop by midday and
continue through the afternoon.
Outlook...
A series of shortwaves are expected to drop out of the Great
Lakes next week, bringing periodic restrictions and
precipitation chances throughout the week. The first arrives
later Monday night, with another possible Wednesday night into
Thursday.&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...Cermak/88
SHORT TERM...Frazier/88
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...CL
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 7:18 PM EST---------------
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