MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 12:06 PM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...377
FXUS64 KMOB 191806
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1206 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
IFR to MVFR ceilings will slowly become MVFR this afternoon with
a stiff north wind around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots. VFR
conditions will likely return after midnight and continue through
the forecast. BB-8
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Wet and cool conditions persist through the rest of this morning
becoming dry and bitterly cold as we head into tonight through
Thursday night. The surface low responsible for ongoing moderate to
locally heavy rainfall over the forecast area will shift east across
the northern gulf through the morning hours. In its wake, strong
cold advection takes hold and the forecast area quickly dries out
with most areas dry by early afternoon. Today will likely feature a
case of temperatures falling throughout the morning and afternoon
hours, with highs mostly occurring early to mid morning. Expect
temperatures to fall into the upper 30's and lower 40's west of the
I-65 corridor with upper 40's to lower 50's by the afternoon hours
east of the I-65 corridor.
As we head into tonight a strong pressure gradient remains over the
area keeping winds elevated through the night. This plus strong cold
advection of an arctic airmass will allow for temperatures to drop
into the lower to middle 20's inland and upper 20's to lower 30's
nearer the coast. Thanks to the stronger winds mentioned above, wind
chills will fall to dangerously cold levels overnight tonight
through Thursday morning, generally ranging around 10 to 20 degrees,
coldest over interior southeastern Mississippi into interior
southwestern Alabama. Given this, a Cold Weather Advisory goes into
effect for all of the forecast area for late tonight through mid
morning Thursday. Thursday highs will struggle to warm only making
it into the upper 30's and lower 40's for interior portions of the
forecast area and lower to middle 40's elsewhere. Thursday night
will be another bitterly cold night in the lower to middle 20's for
nearly all locations. This plus some elevated wind through the night
will once again bring wind chills areawide into the 10 to 20 degree
range, meaning another Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed.
A Moderate risk of rip currents today becomes a low risk for
Thursday. MM/25
SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday Friday night)
Issued at 238 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
The arctic high, centered over the OH/TN Valleys on Friday, will
gradually weaken and shift east through the weekend. This will
result in a gradual moderation of temperatures through the
weekend. Friday, however, will still be very cold with highs only
in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Mid and high level clouds will start
to move into the area Friday night and this will likely prevent it
from getting as cold as it otherwise would. It will still be cold
though with lows in the upper 20s well inland with mid to upper
30s along the coast. Below normal temperatures will continue
through the weekend, but it won't be as cold as what we see for
this Thursday/Friday.
A series of shortwaves are forecast to move through in WNW-NW
flow aloft over the weekend. The timing of the waves and the
degree of any moisture return continues to be uncertain. For now,
we will maintain small rain chances for Saturday night into
Sunday. However, confidence in any rain is very low.
The cold weather will become a distant memory by early next week
as southwesterly low level flow develops by Tuesday, allowing
highs to warm well into the 70s. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 26 44 24 49 33 60 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 30
Pensacola 32 46 28 50 39 60 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 30
Destin 35 48 30 51 40 60 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 30
Evergreen 27 42 21 50 27 60 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Waynesboro 22 40 21 47 27 55 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
Camden 24 40 20 48 26 56 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Crestview 31 46 22 51 30 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
for FLZ201>206.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Thursday
for GMZ633>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 12:06 PM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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