LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 3:33 PM EST567
FXUS63 KLMK 212033
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
333 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather through the weekend into early next week.
Temperatures will continue to rise into early next week.
* Next chance of rain arrives by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
The center of an area of surface high pressure is currently crossing
the Mississippi River as it moves east towards southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. This is producing light and variable winds under
mostly sunny skies. The only exception to clear skies remains over
southeast Indiana and through the Bluegrass into eastern Kentucky
where a layer of stratus remains. This layer is finally beginning to
breakup and dissipate, but some areas could remain cloudy through
the afternoon and evening hours.
Tonight, clear skies and calm winds will make for another cold night
with good radiative cooling. Temperatures are expected to drop into
the mid to upper teens in most places. This isn't warm, but it's
warmer than last night.
Tomorrow, a passing upper wave, moving west to east through the
area, will push mid-level clouds through the region through the
morning and early afternoon. Skies should begin to clear for the
later afternoon and evening hours, and with the surface high
beginning to move east of the region, southwest winds usher in light
warm air advection. This should help temperatures climb to the mid
30s to near 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
Saturday Night through Tuesday...
Dry weather will continue as we head into the second half of the
weekend. While an upper shortwave and associated sfc low will move
from Texas across the Gulf states on Sunday, sfc high pressure over
the TN valley will keep any precipitation chances suppressed well to
the south of our area. Mostly sunny skies and light SW winds will
help temperatures warm into the mid-to-upper 40s Sunday afternoon
after a cold start in the upper teens and lower 20s Sunday morning.
A northwesterly mid- and upper-level flow pattern will continue from
the end of the weekend into next week, with multiple shortwave
troughs bringing sfc lows and cold fronts across the Great Lakes
through the week. For the first half of next week, increasing
heights from the southwest will lead to warming temperatures across
the TN and OH valley, with high forecast confidence in above normal
temperatures for the first half of the week. As the first of the
transient disturbances moves across the Great Lakes on Monday, the
main sensible weather impact across KY and southern IN will be
increasing SW breezes which will lead to temperatures surging well
into the 50s Monday afternoon. A few extra clouds are also likely on
Monday, but precipitation should remain well to the north of the
area.
A second, slightly more amplified disturbance will move through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. While moisture return ahead
of this system will be limited, some medium-range guidance
(particularly the ECMWF) shows a few light rain showers developing
ahead of a weak sfc front which will cross the region. The GFS and
Canadian model families are generally dry, so will leave just a
slight chance PoP in for Tuesday.
Tuesday Night through Friday Night...
No substantial cold advection is expected in the wake of the Tuesday
system, with low-level flow quickly backing to the west-southwest,
promoting warm advection Tuesday night into Wednesday. The most
amplified system of next week is expected to drop through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with better moisture
advection expected ahead of this system. There is more agreement
within ensemble guidance in precipitation developing ahead of a cold
front Wednesday evening, with showers moving quickly through the
region Wednesday night. A better push of cold advection is expected
behind this system, with temperatures returning to more seasonable
levels for the end of next week. Lingering moisture behind the main
cold front could spark some showers in the post-frontal, steep lapse
rate environment next Thursday, so a low chance PoP looks good at
this time. If moisture lingers into Thursday night, a changeover to
some wintry p-types is possible, though this is low confidence at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
Overall the period will remain quiet, but the area of stratus over
LEX and RGA is expected to last though the afternoon and evening
hours. The TAFs could be a little pessimistic in regard to the
ceiling at those two sites, but these layers tend to last longer
than expected. Winds at all the sites will remain light as high
pressure continues to move east towards the region. A passing wave
tomorrow will push some mid level clouds through the area.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 3:33 PM EST---------------
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