IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 17, 12:25 PM EST790
FXUS63 KIWX 171725
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below zero wind chills today.
- Areas of blowing snow today, especially on N-S oriented roads
and in rural, open areas. Lake effect snow showers persist in
Lower Michigan with snow accumulations less than 1" expected.
- Cold air remains in place throughout the week with a chance
for some light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Very cold air is moving in from upstream as an area of high pressure
expands across the Central Plains. Snowpack and decreasing
clouds will allow for areas away from Lake Michigan to drop into
the single digits for lows this morning, while areas closer to
the lake see clouds sticking around and thus, temperatures will
stay in the teens. Wind chills will be 5 to 10 below zero this
morning, just shy of Cold Weather Advisory criteria. With highs
only in the teens later this afternoon, wind chills will
struggle to make it above zero all day today as west winds gust
up to 25 mph. With westerly winds today, lake effect snow
showers will lift northward across Lower Michigan. Minor snow
accumulations are expected (around 1" or less) for our Lower
Michigan counties, but some roads may still be slick and snow-
covered. Area-wide, blowing snow continues today with the
aforementioned gusty winds. Rural, open areas and N-S oriented
roads will be the most impacted by blowing snow. Have handled
the cold wind chills this morning and the blowing snow concerns
with an area- wide SPS. As winds shift back to the northwest
tonight, lake effect snow showers will once again shift to be
downwind of Lake Michigan in northwest Indiana and southwest
Lower Michigan.
High pressure centered over the Dakotas will build eastward this
week, keeping our area mainly dry and seasonably cold. Highs will be
in the teens through Thursday with lows in the single digits.
Morning wind chills will be as cold as 5 to 10 below zero.
Models are in agreement with a winter storm developing to our
south across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on
Wednesday. Our forecast area is on the northern fringes of this
system and we could see some light snow showers overspread the
area during the day Wednesday as a result. Renewed chances for
lake effect snow return behind this system Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures finally climb above freezing by the
weekend and another dry stretch ensues as high pressure builds
across the eastern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Lake effect snow briefly dropped south into KSBN as of midday,
but southwest/west flow overall will favor lake effect to be
north of the terminal. Instead, tonight, wind becomes
northwesterly as a weak disturbances passes through southern IN
and brings increasing chances for lake effect snow to KSBN.
Northwest flow and snow showers prevail through most of Tuesday.
No snow concerns at KFWA as flow and inversion heights appear to
be marginal for snow to reach all the way to KFWA. Instead, lake
effect clouds will build in this evening and persist through
Tuesday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 17, 12:25 PM EST---------------
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