ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 3:59 AM EST481
FXUS61 KILN 190859
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow chances decrease throughout the morning has the first of
two systems moves away from the region. Another low pressure
system will move quickly across the Great lakes and Ohio Valley
tonight, bringing a chance for snow showers to the entire area.
Below normal temperatures are on tap for much of the upcoming
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The regional mosaic radar can be quite misleading this morning
due to the considerable amounts of dry air undercutting the
falling snow. Light northerly flow continues to pull dry air
southward, sublimating much of the snow attempting to reach the
surface. Across the winter weather advisory area, snow has
finally filtered far enough north, with light accumulations
still expected. Will continue the advisory until the noon
given the light snow. Much of the remaining snow is being
forced by weak broad-scale ascent associated with the shortwave
moving through. Thermal profiles remain very favorable for dry
fluffy snow, which will accumulate efficiently on cold road
surfaces.
Outside the advisory, some light snow or flurries are expected
this morning before gradually tapering off from west to east.
High temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday with
upper teens in the north and mid 20s across the south.
Later this evening, attention shifts to the primary vort-max
associated with a closed pivoting through the lower Midwest and
Ohio Valley. Snow showers are forecast to be approaching the
Indiana/Ohio border by the end of the near term period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
After a brief respite from the broad-scale ascent, another
round of forcing moves in during the onset of the short term
period. The closed low pivots into the Ohio Valley later this
evening with scattered to numerous snow showers expected. The
timing of the snow accumulations should be far enough removed
from the evening commute as to not cause major problems,
therefore no advisory was issued at this time. Accumulations
will take place overtime, with between 0.5 and 1.5 inches
expected across the area. While temperature remain cold, much of
the forcing will occur in temperatures cooler than the DGZ,
decreasing the size of the flakes. Nevertheless, given the high
snow ratios, cold temperatures, and timing, an SPS has been
issued to cover the threat for slick roads later this evening.
Snow showers taper off for much of the area throughout the day
on Thursday, with the exception being a stream of moisture
moving southeast from Lake Michigan. Have held on to some
mention for continued snow showers across portions of west-
central Ohio and central Ohio until the end of the period. Some
locations may end up with near 2" due to the longer duration of
snow shower activity.
The low pressure off the east coast and incoming surface high
pressure will tighten the pressure gradient throughout the
afternoon and into the evening hours on Thursday. Some blowing
of snow is possible as wind gusts approach 20 to 25 mph.
Lingering snow cover and fresh dry snow make this potential
favorable in wind exposed areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flow off of Lake Michigan may still result in some snow showers
or flurries across far northern counties into Thursday night
before a surface high starts building in sufficiently to allow
the flow to back. The high will then extend across the area
through the end of the week. Temperatures will be slowly
moderating.
The high will move off to the east on Sunday and southwesterly
flow will increase ahead of a trough that will be trailing low
pressure moving through the Great Lakes on Monday. This will
bring more substantial warming with readings rising above
normal. Another low will follow on Tuesday, likely tracking a
bit further south than the one on Monday. But there is a fair
bit of uncertainty with how this second low evolves. At this
point, it does bring a chance of rain showers.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes from the 00Z TAF. Added additional mentions of
-SN for later this evening and overnight (~01-08Z). Otherwise,
the storm system tracking to our south is combating dry air
coming in from the north. Mentions for -SN remain, with
adjustments expected for the 12Z issuance.
CIGs will lower into this morning and afternoon with MVFR cigs
expected at all area TAF sites. Expect a return to VFR
conditions during the afternoon to early evening hours. This
will be short lived as MVFR conditions returning with the
evening snow.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday night in
snow showers. MVFR ceilings may persist at times Thursday into
Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ089-090-
094>100.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 3:59 AM EST---------------
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