IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 2:24 PM EST867
FXUS63 KIND 181924
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
224 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Accumulating snow is expected tonight in areas along and south of
I-70 with amounts as high as one to two inches towards Vincennes
- A period of light snow with minor accumulations over all of
central Indiana expected late Wednesday and Wednesday night
- Temperatures will remain brutally cold through Thursday
before moderating this weekend and early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 223 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
Today:
An elongated pressure trough over southern Indiana has squeezed out
flurries and scattered light snow showers this morning. As of this
afternoon though, the building ridge has filled in this weak
pressure trough, removing much the forcing and therefor ended the
snow threat outside of some lingering isolated flurries.
Tonight
A synoptically driven system will push into the Ohio Valley tonight.
This will be associated with a weak upper level trough, and a strong
mid level jet. With this lacking a near surface component, low level
moisture advection will be limited, allowing for a steep northward
gradient in snowfall amounts. Central Indiana will likely be on the
northern periphery of this steep snowfall gradient, leaving the
northern half of the CWA outside of any accumulation. Even central
Indiana locations (Vincennes, Bedford, Seymour) within a more
prolific moisture profile will lack mesoscale forcing and banding
necessary for heavy snow rates
With that said, snow ratios will be in the 16:1-20:1 range with the
very cold antecedent airmass which will allow for accumulations even
with minimal QPF. Afternoon model runs continue to showcase general
consistency with far southern central Indiana receiving around an
inch with lesser amounts north. Flurries may reach as far north as
the I-70 corridor, but any accumulating snow should remain south of
a Terre Haute to Columbus line. With the relatively low totals,
continue to feel confident that a Winter Weather Advisory won't be
needed as the higher totals will remain south of the forecast area.
Snow will gradually come to an end towards daybreak with another
morning of lows in the high single digits to low teens.
Tomorrow:
Snow should be out of the area by morning, however given the
continued mid level moisture a few flurries cannot be ruled out. By
the afternoon a deep closed low and associated PV anomaly will near
providing additional accumulating snow. Most of this snowfall should
occur Wednesday evening and night and is talked about in the Long
Term section.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 223 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
Wednesday night...
A deepening upper level low will move across central Indiana
Wednesday night. Broad forcing from this low will be able to squeeze
out the moisture in the cold airmass to produce some light snow.
Forcing in the snow growth zone looks best in the eastern forecast
area. Will up guidance PoPs into the likely category over the
eastern two-thirds of central Indiana with high chance category PoPs
elsewhere.
Given the higher snow ratios that will be in place, over a half inch
of snow is possible in some areas, especially east.
Low temperatures will be in the single digits most areas, with wind
chills below zero. With winds staying up, will have to keep an eye
out for the potential of a Cold Weather Advisory for parts of the
area if temperatures trend a little cooler.
Thursday through Tuesday...
Thursday into Thursday night will remain cold, but as the large
upper trough takes the colder air off to the north and east
afterward, moderation will begin. Readings will return to around
normal by Sunday, with above normal readings expected early next
week.
Questions remain about precipitation chances though. This weekend,
an upper level impulse will move east into the area. Models with a
stronger solution show some precipitation with it, while weaker ones
keep the area dry. Will leave the dry forecast for the weekend for
continuity but do so with lower confidence.
Early next week, northwest flow will bring some upper impulses
through the area. These could bring some light precipitation at
times. Questions remain on strength and timing though.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
Impacts:
-MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs tonight after 06Z
-Light snow likely at KBMG tonight. MVFR to IFR vsby possible for
brief periods
Discussion:
Additional snow is expected tonight after 08Z at KBMG with light
snow/flurries possible at KHUF. Snow was left out of the TAF at KIND
due to low probability, but some light flurries cannot be ruled out.
Cigs will drop back to MVFR tonight, potentially a brief period of
IFR at KBMG. Winds will generally remain northerly at 6-10kts
through the TAF period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 2:24 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
