MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 5:18 PM CST ...New AVIATION...197
FXUS64 KMOB 162318
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
518 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
A cloud deck near 2900-3600 ft over interior areas may progress a
bit further south this evening, but after that is expected to
erode and retreat from the area overnight. Northerly winds at 5 to
10 knots overnight, a bit stronger near the coast, diminish to
around 5 knots by Monday afternoon. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday Night)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
Surface high pressure will build east toward the forecast area this
evening, with the ridge axis centered over the area by early Monday,
and then sliding slightly east of the area through Monday night.
This high pressure will bring a much drier and cooler airmass to the
region. The drier and cooler (actually much cooler) conditions to
the area tonight through Monday night. Lows tonight will likely be
the coldest of the near term period, ranging from the upper 20s to
near 30 up along the Highway 84 corridor to the mid and upper 30s
down at the coast. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the mid to
upper 50s. Lows Monday night still cold, but slightly warmer than
tonight, when temps will then range from the low to mid 30s over
most of the inland forecast area, with upper 30s to low/mid 40s.
closer to and along the immediate coast. No rain and mostly clear
skies expected through the period. Surf heights along the coastal
beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are slowly decreasing,
and a High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 6pm this evening.
A High Risk of rip currents also remains in effect along area
beaches through midnight tonight. Otherwise, no other hazards or
impactful weather expected in the near term period. DS/12
SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERMS...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
A series of upper level shortwaves move through zonal flow over the
Southeast Tuesday night through Wednesday, bringing isentropic
upglide showers to the forecast area mid week. Guidance continues to
advertise a surface low developing over the western Gulf and moving
it east south of the northern Gulf coast Tuesday night through
Wednesday, passing over the marine portions of the forecast area
Wednesday morning. This track will keep any surface based convection
over the Gulf of Mexico, though elevated thunderstorms are possible
over the coast. Will need to monitor for water issues over our
coastal counties, especially if the surface low passes further
north, allowing for more elevated instability and stronger
thunderstorms to mix in. Also, if the shortwave energy passes a bit
slower as in previous model runs, a longer period of rain may cause
issues. Guidance is in good agreement with keeping any winter
precipitation well north of the forecast area, so that is a non-
issue at this time. At this point, timing of the passing shortwave
energy has come into better agreement, so have better confidence
with the forecast through Wednesday.
The ECMWF and GDPS develop a surface high further south over the
American Plains than the other models behind the exiting upper
dynamics mid week, bringing a stronger push of cold air to the
Southeast, and cooler temperatures the latter half of the week than
the GFS and other deterministic guidance. Latest ensembles are in
good agreement with their respective deterministic models, so a
middle of the road approach to temperatures this portion of the
forecast is the best approach. More shortwave energy passes over the
forecast area late Friday through the weekend, bringing another
round of isentropic upglide induced rainshowers to the forecast area
for the weekend. Looking at the model soundings, any instability,
surface or elevated, is well south of even the marine portion of the
forecast area, so have left out any mention of rumbles. Also,
placement of rain overnight is expected to be south of any freezing
temperatures, limiting any winter precipitation. Will have to
monitor, with the inconsistency in the guidance the end of the
week into the weekend.
On to temperatures, high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s
Tuesday see a drop Wednesday over northern portions of the forecast
area as cooler air begins to move south over the area. Around 50 is
expected over our northwestern-most counties of the forecast area to
around 60 over the I-10 corridor and nearby. As more cold air moves
south over the Southeast, low 40s to low 50s are expected Thursday,
with rebounding Friday (mid 40s to low 50s). Temperatures continue
to climb over the weekend, with 50s expected Saturday and low to mid
60s on Sunday. Looking at low temperatures, around 40 to near 50 are
expected Tuesday night. Behind the system, low 20s north of Highway
84 to around 30 along the I-10 corridor are expected Wednesday and
Thursday nights. Into the weekend, low temperatures rise, ranging
from around 30 north of Highway 84 to 34 to 39 along the I-10
corridor.
A Moderate to High Risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday night
into Wednesday night as the mid week system passes. Otherwise, a Low
Risk of rip currents is expected.
/16
MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
Strong offshore flow will continue into Monday morning, then
gradually weaken and become more easterly through Tuesday. Flow
begins to increase and become more southeasterly Tuesday night
before shifting back to strong offshore on Wednesday as an area of
low pressure moves east across the northern Gulf. The strong
offshore flow will then persist through Thursday, gradually
subsiding Thursday night through Friday night. Strong flow and rough
seas will be hazardous to small craft during the early and also
during the latter part of the week. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 33 58 38 62 46 57 28 49 / 0 0 0 10 90 60 0 0
Pensacola 37 58 43 61 50 58 33 50 / 0 0 0 0 90 80 0 0
Destin 39 59 45 63 52 60 35 51 / 0 0 0 0 80 90 10 0
Evergreen 31 56 33 62 42 54 26 46 / 0 0 0 0 80 80 0 0
Waynesboro 30 55 33 58 40 49 21 44 / 0 0 0 10 90 50 0 0
Camden 29 52 31 58 40 51 23 43 / 0 0 0 0 80 70 0 0
Crestview 33 59 34 63 46 58 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 80 90 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636-650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 5:18 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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