CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 12:27 PM EST139
FXUS61 KCLE 181727
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1227 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure persists through midweek. An upper level
low passes through the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday before
high pressure returns through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1215 PM EST Update...
Light snow showers/flurries have been stubborn to taper off so
have extended flurries/slight chances of snow showers through
the afternoon. Snow accumulation is not expected. Have also
increased cloud cover since stratocumulus has developed downwind
from Lake Erie with additional clouds downwind from Lake
Michigan.
Previous Discussion...
Scattered and light lake effect snow showers downwind of Lake
Erie will dissipate through the early morning hours today as dry
air continues to build into the region from the west. Dry
conditions persist through today as high pressure influences the
region. A trough aloft slowly approaches the eastern Great
Lakes from the west on Wednesday, allowing for increased cloud
cover areawide. Surface low pressure passing well to the south
of the region, in addition to the upper trough remaining west of
the area, will keep snow showers out of the forecast area
through the day Wednesday.
Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM this morning
across Northwest Pennsylvania where wind chill values early this
morning will drop into the -15 to -20 F range. Remaining brisk
elsewhere as wind chill values early this morning will be
hovering around -10 F. High temperatures rise to the 10 to 15 F
range this afternoon, though sub-zero to single digit wind
chills are expected through today. Lows tonight drop into the
single digits with another night of sub-zero wind chills
expected, generally -5 to -10 F. Highs on Wednesday rise into
the upper teens to near 20 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low pressure will dig into the southern Great Lakes
Thursday, reinforcing the Arctic airmass in place across the region.
Accompanying the upper low will be a couple of surface thermal
troughs swinging through north to south Wednesday night and
Thursday, as well as a persistent, slow moving 925mb thermal trough.
All these factors renew the low/mid level saturation of the column
and provide convergence, and while the forcing/lift is
imperfect, it will not take much at all to generate scattered
snow showers during the Wednesday night/Thursday period given
the Arctic airmass. Expecting this coverage to slowly shift
eastward in time and set up over the northeastern zones of the
CWA into Thursday night. While the upper low will be quick to
exit by this time, now have the possibility of a Lake Huron
connection in the low level north northwest flow Thursday night.
High pressure over the midwest states, held up by a coastal low
Thursday and Thursday night, will finally make progress into
the Ohio Valley Friday, shutting off the lake effect fetch. With
the snow showers in the short term, expecting in the vicinity
of an inch total that will likely occur in a few different
rounds of coatings, adding up. For the lake effect zones,
probably a 1-3 inch scenario from Thursday afternoon through
late Friday morning. Will need to watch this closely however,
because with the colder airmass in place, snow ratios will be
fairly high.
Slow modification of the temperatures for the short term period, but
still feeling the effects of the Arctic airmass, and will see mid to
upper 20s at best in the western zones of the CWA Friday. Wednesday
night will still have some single digit low temperatures, primarily
in the eastern CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Slow modification of the Arctic airmass continues into the weekend
and early next week. Will start seeing significant thickness
increases in the middle CONUS that will at least exert some
influence in the Great Lakes region. 850mb temperatures now into the
minus single digits, and a couple of trough axes Sunday night
and Monday night still able to clip the CWA keep any drastic warm
ups well west of our area. That said, Sunday through Tuesday should
be at least a couple/few degrees above freezing.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Stratocumulus has developed downwind from Lake Erie and even
Lake Michigan this afternoon with some light snow showers
developing at NE OH terminals. Generally think that prevailing
ceilings will be VFR this afternoon, but ceilings may
periodically drop to MVFR (hence the TEMPO groups through about
21Z). Mid-level clouds may persist through tonight, but expect
widespread VFR. Ceilings may begin to lower as early as 15Z
Wednesday as a shortwave lifts into the region, but currently
think that any non-VFR ceilings will hold off until after 18Z.
Winds will be out of the west/northwest at 8 to 14 knots with a
few gusts to around 20 knots possible at KERI/KYNG this
afternoon. Expect winds to diminish below 10 knots tonight
through Wednesday morning.
.Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible in widespread snow
showers Wednesday night into Thursday and in lake effect snow
showers across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
Thursday through early Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains mainly ice covered. Cold southwesterly winds today
10-20kts ease to 5-10kts tonight. Increasing pressure gradient
between the central plains region high pressure system and a
developing surface low moving up the east coast will cause winds out
of the northwest to increase Wednesday night through Thursday,
reaching 15-20kts, weakening to 10-15kts while becoming westerly on
Friday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13/15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 12:27 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
