CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 4:14 AM EST569
FXUS61 KCLE 100914
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
414 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east across the region today, then to the
East Coast tonight. A weak cold front will settle south across the
area Tuesday night. Low pressure will track northeast into the
region on Wednesday night bringing a wintry mix to the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure extends from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley
this morning. Residual stratus across eastern portions of the
forecast area are expected to scatter out this morning as high
pressure strengthens overhead. Some cumulus may return today as a
weak trough crosses Lake Erie. Cirrus is also expected to thicken
through the afternoon with zonal flow aloft. Most areas will see
high temperatures climb a few degrees from yesterday into the 30s
with filtered sun while NW Pennsylvania will tend to remain in the
mid 20s for another day. Mid cloud will thicken tonight and limit
radiational cooling to some degree. The cooler temperatures tonight
will be in Northwest Pennsylvania where lows will dip solidly into
the teens.
On Tuesday an inverted surface trough will extend north across the
Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley. While a dry low level airmass will
remain in place across northern Ohio, overrunning in the 850-700mb
layer may reach our southern counties during the afternoon. Will
continue with a chance of snow during the afternoon. Any
precipitation is expected to be light if it occurs at all. In
addition temperatures will be near freezing so no impacts are
expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be located to the southeast of the area by Tuesday
night, but a few light snow showers with little or no accumulation
cannot be ruled out in southwestern zones. A brief period of dry
weather is expected Wednesday morning before PoPs increase in
response to isentropic ascent developing ahead of low pressure that
will deepen as it lifts northeast across the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys. Precip will spread across the area Wednesday afternoon and
peak as the low lifts across the region Wednesday night. Additional
precipitation, likely snow showers, is possible across the snowbelt
as cold air advection develops on the back side of the low Thursday
morning into Thursday afternoon.
There's still some uncertainty in the exact track of the surface
low and the resulting precipitation types/accumulations/impacts, but
latest model guidance has trended a bit farther north with
this update which has led to a northward shift in snowfall and
mixed precip potential. Precip will likely start off as snow with a
transition to a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain as the low
lifts over the area Wednesday evening/night. The northward trend has
resulted in warmer temperatures across southern zones and it's
possible that rain is the primary ptype from roughly Morrow County
to southern Mahoning County. The rain/snow line may lift north
across interior northeastern/north-central Ohio Wednesday night, but
a wintry mix will likely persist across northwestern Ohio and
northwestern PA. A transition to snow is likely as northwesterly
flow develops behind the departing low late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning.
The latest forecast places the highest snowfall totals of 2 to 4
inches across NW OH (with locally higher amounts possible near the
OH/MI border) with 1 to 2 inches more likely northwest of a line
from roughly Marion, OH to northern Crawford County, PA. Locations
that are forecast to receive a wintry mix will likely see a few
hundredths of an inch of ice accumulation with locally higher
amounts up to a tenth of an inch possible where the wintry mix will
persist across NW OH and NW PA. As with this past weekend's mixed
precip event, any minor fluctuations in the track of the low could
result in significant changes to accumulations/impacts, so stay
tuned for updates and possible headlines as confidence increases.
Tuesday night's lows will fall into the mid to upper teens to lower
20s. Wednesday's temperatures will rise throughout the day and hold
relatively steady through the evening. Highs will likely be in the
low to mid 30s, although a few spots in Morrow/Knox/Holmes counties
may reach the upper 30s. Temperatures will begin to decrease as the
low exits the area late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning
so expect minimum temps in the 20s. Thursday will be slightly cooler
with highs in the upper 20s to low to mid 30s. Clear skies will
allow for efficient radiational cooling Thursday night; lows will
likely fall into the lower teens and single digits.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather is favored for Friday and possibly Friday evening as
surface high pressure drifts east across the region, however the
respite from wintry precip will be short-lived as the next system
approaches from the west Friday night and moves across the area on
Saturday. A deep upper trough will push east across the Plains and
Mississippi Valley with its associated surface low developing
somewhere across the mid-Mississippi or Ohio/Tennessee valleys
Saturday afternoon. The surface low will likely lift northeast into
the region at some point Saturday night, although there's still
quite a bit to iron out with the exact track of the system.
Rain/snow showers will likely develop across the CWA late Friday
night into Saturday with widespread snow expected across the area
Saturday night into Sunday. Still a bit too much uncertainty to dive
into potential accumulations, but impactful snow accumulation is
possible across the entire area Saturday night through Sunday
morning. Stay tuned for updates on this system.
Below normal temperatures are likely Friday and Sunday and temps
will likely rise to near normal values in the mid to upper 30s
during the day Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
MVFR stratus deck in place across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania will gradually clear as high pressure builds into
the region from the west. A few light flurries also remain
beneath this cloud deck with clouds expected to clear much of
the area by 11Z. Sct-bkn cumulus around 2500 feet may redevelop
at eastern terminals through midday while other sites see just
an increase in high cloud through the afternoon.
Winds will be generally west or northwesterly at 10 knots or
less to start the taf period, backing to southwesterly this
morning, then becoming westerly at 8-12 knots for the afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR may return with light snow showers Tuesday
afternoon at CAK/YNG. Otherwise IFR and lower conditions are
expected areawide late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
with mixed precipitation, including snow, sleet, freezing rain,
and rain. Non-VFR will linger for much of the area through
Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots are expected through early this
evening before winds diminish tonight through Tuesday morning. Winds
veer to the northeast Tuesday afternoon and increase to 15 to 25
knots as low pressure approaches the lake Wednesday afternoon. Can't
rule out a period of higher winds up to 30 knots in the open
waters as the low nears the lake Wednesday evening. Flow shifts to
the west/northwest as the low exits the region early Thursday and
expect similar flow (with sustained winds to 15 to 20 knots) through
as late as Thursday evening. Westerly winds will likely diminish to
10 to 15 knots Thursday night and shift to the southwest Friday.
Most of Lake Erie remains ice covered and waves will be limited in
ice-free areas. Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended
until further notice due to extensive ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 4:14 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
