CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 9, 6:46 AM EST618
FXUS61 KCLE 091146
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
646 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east into the region today into Monday
before exiting to the east Monday night. A cold front is
expected to cross the local area Tuesday with a low pressure
system moving across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 AM EST Update...
Precipitation will continue to wane across the snowbelt of NE
OH/NW PA this morning. Any impactful precipitation has ended
across NW PA and the Winter Weather Advisory will expire at the
top of the hour. No changes needed with this update.
Previous Discussion...
Light lake effect/enhanced snow showers will likely continue
across the snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA through the remainder of
the overnight before gradually starting to taper off and
focusing into NW PA by mid-morning as upper level support shifts
northeastward and a surface high begins to build in from the
west. Scattered light snow showers may linger across NW PA
throughout most of the day and possibly into this evening since
the mid-levels may struggle to dry out and there are signs of a
slight uptick in lake effect snow showers as a piece of energy
moves across the lake tonight. Additional snow accumulations
should be an inch or less with locally higher amounts possible
across the higher terrain of Erie County. The Winter Weather
Advisory has been cancelled for NE OH since impactful wintry
precipitation has ended, but the advisory remains in effect
until 12Z/7 AM for NW PA due to accumulating snowfall and
continued slippery travel. With that being said, temperatures in
the 20s this morning may result in refreezing of any liquid on
untreated pavement and slippery travel across the entire area.
Dry weather is favored outside of the snowbelt for the entirety
of the near term period. Residual lake effect clouds may stick
around across the eastern half of the area today, however the
arrival of drier air tonight into Monday morning will likely
allow for clearing and mostly sunny skies during the day Monday.
Today's highs will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s and
radiational cooling tonight will result in lows in the teens
tonight. Monday's afternoon highs will generally be in the mid
to upper 20s although a few spots in southern zones may briefly
touch the mid 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Generally dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as high
pressure overhead builds to the East Coast. Dry low level air will
be in place and have trended pops down for Tuesday. A wave of low
pressure is forecast to slide east through the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday so will maintain a low pop in a couple of the southern
counties but any snow showers will be very light or flurries.
Meanwhile a trough will pass north of the Great Lakes with the
associated cold front settling south across the area on Tuesday
night. High temperatures during the short term will tend to be in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.
For Wednesday into Wednesday night we will be watching a potentially
impactful system develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley and track
towards Northeast Ohio by Thursday morning. This occurs as northern
stream energy moving south out of Canada phases with shortwave
energy originating off the California Coast to result in a deepening
trough over the Plains and storm track northeast through the Ohio
Valley. Model trends of various ensemble over the last 48 hours have
been to the northwest with the surface low track. Additional
variation in the track remains possible which will impact
precipitation type, temperatures, and distribution of the heaviest
precipitation. Additional adjustments to the storm track are likely
into Tuesday as the energy driving this system will not be well
sampled until that time.
Early indications suggest that precipitation will blossom across the
area Wednesday evening with most locations starting as snow or
possibly a rain/snow mix closer to Central Ohio. Low temperatures
are expected during the evening with temperatures rising overnight
in the eastern half of the forecast area. At this time Toledo looks
to receive primarily snow while a portion of the area may see
another round of mixed precipitation with sleet and/or freezing rain
due to a warm nose aloft. Areas east of a I-71 and south of I-80
have now trended warm enough to transition to just rain during the
overnight hours. QPF amounts range from 0.25 to 0.5 inch and impacts
are likely where precipitation remains as all snow or a mix with
sleet/freezing rain. Stay tuned for updates with this system over
the coming days as confidence increases in storm track and
precipitation type.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highs on Thursday will occur during the morning with cold air
wrapping in from the northwest as low pressure departs across New
England. Temperatures starting off as high as the upper 30s in
Northeast Ohio will fall into the upper 20s during the afternoon.
Precipitation is also expected to diminish rather quickly on
Thursday as dry mid-level air wraps in from the southwest. Scattered
snow showers may linger in the northeast but with generally light
accumulations given decreased moisture flux off frozen Lake Erie.
The airmass behind the front is rather cold with lows forecast to be
in the lower teens and wind chills in the single digits. High
pressure will be overhead on Friday with dry conditions with another
storm system approaching from the southwest for next weekend. Timing
is still a little uncertain but another round of widespread
precipitation is looking possible for later Saturday. Have started
off with a rain/snow mix in the forecast with low confidence in
precipitation type at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
An area of clearing has moved east into the area which has
resulted in higher ceilings across NW OH than previously
anticipated. VFR conditions are expected at KTOL/KFDY through
about 16Z and at KMFD between about 13Z and 16Z before ceilings
fall back to MVFR this afternoon. KCLE may see a brief period of
clearing this morning so have introduced a TEMPO for VFR
conditions before lower clouds redevelop. Meanwhile, eastern
terminals will experience continued non-VFR conditions through
most of today. Skies will begin to clear from the west late
this afternoon into this evening; VFR conditions will return to
KTOL/KFDY at around 21Z and spread east to KCLE near or shortly
after 00Z before reaching KYNG shortly after 06Z. VFR will then
persist through the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the northwest at 6 to 12 knots before
becoming light at around 00Z. Isolated gusts to about 20 knots
cannot be ruled out through early this afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR may return in snow across the southern half
of the area on Tuesday and in mixed precipitation Wednesday
night into early Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure pulls away to the east today with high pressure from
the Upper Midwest building into the Ohio Valley through Monday.
Winds on Lake Erie will tend to be 15 knots or less through the day
on Tuesday. A weak cold front will settle south across Lake Erie
late Tuesday with winds shifting to the northeast behind the front.
A stronger low pressure system is forecast to track out of the lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, reaching eastern Lake Erie by
Thursday morning and continuing northeast across New England. The
exact track and strength of this system will impact wind speeds and
directions on Lake Erie. Northeast winds will increase to 15 to 20
knots on Wednesday, then backing to west northwest behind the low by
Thursday.
Most of Lake Erie remains ice covered and waves will be limited in
any ice free areas. Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended
until further notice due to extensive ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 9, 6:46 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
