LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 9, 10:54 AM EST074
FXUS63 KLMK 091554
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1054 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cool and mostly dry conditions expected today through Monday,
with a slight chance for a shower or sprinkle this afternoon
across southern Kentucky.
* Potential for wintry precipitation, mainly snow, is increasing
for Monday night into Tuesday. Confidence starting to increase
for minor snow accumulations in the I-64 vicinity.
* Additional chances for precipitation Wednesday Night and
Thursday, as well as next weekend, will lead to an enhanced
potential for flooding across the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
The low cloud deck is beginning to mix out as it pushes south this
morning. With skies thinning, we expect to see temperatures begin to
warm up, bringing highs into the low-mid 40s this afternoon. Light
showers are currently over central Tennessee, riding along a weak
wave with shallow moisture around 700mb. The 850mb level remains
quite dry which will allow most of this rain to evaporate or fall as
light drizzle in the afternoon over far southern Kentucky. Due to
this, light PoPs remain in the grids. The current forecast remains
on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
This morning, all of central KY and southern IN is post-frontal as
07Z sfc analysis has the cold front extending from the Blue Ridge
Mountains down into the lower Tennessee Valley. Cold advection
behind the front will continue this morning via northwest winds,
which should gradually ease and veer to north-northeasterly by later
today. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows low stratus
over the region, with clearing just west of the CWA at this time.
Brief clearing is possible later this morning, generally along and
west of a French Lick to Hardinsburg to Franklin line. However, any
areas which clear should fill in with stratocu later this morning as
the low-level flow veers to the north.
Today, one of the forecast challenges is determining how persistent
the 1-2 kft base stratus/stratocu layer will be. As is typical for
this type of setup, global model guidance is faster to mix out low-
level moisture, with hi-res guidance (especially the HRRR/RAP)
keeping low clouds for longer. Faster clearing of low clouds would
support warmer temps this afternoon, overcoming what should be
weakening cold advection. With this forecast, have trended a bit on
the cooler/cloudier side, with highs this afternoon in the upper 30s
and lower 40s.
The other challenge today is the possibility of isolated rain
showers this afternoon across south central KY. A secondary speed
max at 700 mb will pass through the TN valley this afternoon, with
an increase in mid-level saturation coinciding with this feature.
Weak isentropic lift is also present along the 300 and 305K surfaces
across TN and southern KY. However, hi-res soundings consistently
depict a layer of dry air about 5-7 kft deep between the mid-level
and near-sfc areas of saturation. Will continue with a slight chance
for rain showers this afternoon, mainly along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway, with precipitation amounts expected to be very
light.
Tonight, the sfc high which will be over IA today will sink into the
mid-Mississippi Valley, with light northerly flow continuing. With
the loss of daytime heating, any low-level stratocu should start to
scatter out, with partly cloudy skies expected. Temperatures are
expected to cool into the mid-to-upper 20s along and north of I-64,
with lows around 30 degrees expected across south central KY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
Low-amplitude upper flow will remain in place for much of the
upcoming week, with a series of disturbances that will tap copious
amounts of Gulf moisture for the Ohio Valley.
The first system will impact the region late Monday night through
Tuesday night, as a sfc low runs across the Deep South, with an
inverted trof extending NE into the southern Appalachians. Precip
type is the biggest question mark with a Great Lakes high holding
cold and dry air in place, and the moisture feed pushing just north
of the Ohio River. Best shot at accumulating snow will be roughly
aligned with the I-64 corridor late Monday night and Tuesday
morning. At this point it looks like a sloppy, low-ratio snow, but
with 1-2 inches of accumulation possible from around Louisville over
toward Lexington. A narrow swath of higher amounts will be possible
but confidence is not high enough to nail that down. Model soundings
suggest the warm nose will be minimal at best, so expect it to be a
fairly clean transition from snow across north central Kentucky to
rain south of the Parkways, with little or no freezing rain in
between. Rain could be heavy at times, with 1-2 inches of liquid
possible near Lake Cumberland.
The next storm system cranks up late Wednesday with the sfc low
developing near Houston and running NE up the spine of the
Appalachians. This will be mostly rain, except for a brief
changeover to snow as the cold air chases the moisture out on
Thursday. Heaviest rain totals again run from Lake Cumberland up
into eastern Kentucky, but with a pronounced dry slot as the main
source of uncertainty.
Yet another system will bring widespread rain on Saturday and
Saturday night, possibly with a sfc low roughly paralleling the Ohio
River. Not as confident in the details yet, but heavy rainfall is
again a good bet for at least part of the area. With rivers already
running high, aggravated or renewed flooding is likely.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
Ceilings will be the main driver of flight categories through the
current forecast period as MVFR stratus is expected to continue
through at least the morning hours today. As has been the case over
the past few hours, ceilings will likely bounce between 1-4 kft,
with brief periods of VFR conditions also possible. This afternoon,
low-level moisture will gradually mix out, with a return to VFR
conditions expected by this evening, though LEX and RGA could be a
bit slower to scatter out the low stratus. VFR conditions should
then continue into Monday morning. Winds should be light out of the
north today, generally between 5-10 kt.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 9, 10:54 AM EST---------------
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