PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 7, 12:46 AM EST353
FXUS61 KPBZ 070546
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1246 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet, dry weather is expected today along with gusty winds,
especially along the ridges. Winter weather impacts increase
late Saturday with a new disturbance.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clouds will continue to linger with sufficient moisture
- Some clouds will clear after midnight
- Gusty conditions are expected in eastern Tucker; Wind Advisory
in effect
----------------------------------------------------------------
Strong cold advection at 850 mb is underway as a surface trough
approaches from the north. Steepening low level lapse rates will
promote near dry-adiabatic profiles with meager boundary layer
moisture. The better moisture, according to RAP/HRRR soundings,
will be farthest north, as the trough passes so have included
low end PoPs north of I-80 after 08z following close to the
HREF but this should be little impact.
Models are indicating a brief reduction in cloud cover late
this evening, but then another area of stratocu will move
southward with the colder air aloft. With the late arrival of
cold air from the north with a passing trough, overnight
temperatures will likely be near average.
The potential for 50mph gusts along the ridges of eastern Tucker
are elevated tonight with a passing trough over the Northeast; a
Wind Advisory has been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry, quiet weather expected Friday
- High wind gusts continues in eastern Tucker through Friday
afternoon
- Portions of the region may be impacted by winter weather
(ice/snow) late Saturday
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Generally dry weather is expected Friday with mid and low-lvl
subsidence. Afternoon high temperatures will be near average.
The probability of high winds (50mph to 55mph) is elevated along
the ridges of eastern Tucker through early Friday afternoon;
Wind Advisory remains in effect. Wind gusts will likely be the
strongest between 1am and 9am Friday; brief periods of 60mph
wind gusts may occur.
The grand ensemble of models indicate a new low pressure system
advancing into the Ohio River Valley Saturday morning into early
Sunday. The potential for winter weather impacts increases
Saturday afternoon/evening with model soundings indicating
freezing rain and/or snow for areas north of I-70. The probability
of at least 1 inch of snow, indicated by the NBM, is elevated
north of I-80 (65-70%). The the probability of accumulating ice
due to freezing rain ranges from 15% to 95% between I-70 and
I-80; higher probability are noted along the ridges given the
potential of prolong cold air due to upsloping under southeast
flow.
With the threat of hazardous travel, a Winter Weather Advisory
will likely be needed in the next 24 hours for portions of the
region.
Areas south of I-70, where precip type will likely stay all
rain, will likely experience rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50
inches to 0.75 inches. The probability of amounts 1 inch or
higher is 5 to 20 percent along the ridges of the Laurel
Highlands and ridges of West Virginia.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Winter weather impacts for the aforementioned system in the
near term is expected through early Sunday
- Northwest flow may prompt snow shower activity Sunday, light
accumulations expected
- Early week disturbance may create hazardous travel
Monday/Tuesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
As the low exits east and northwest flow prevails, lingering
snow showers may advance into the area Sunday; minor
accumulations (less than an inch) are expected.
The potential of snow could return as early as Monday night
with a passing new disturbance. However, ensemble models are
heavily skewed to a time of arrival late Tuesday morning. The
latest version of the NBM indicates the potential of winter
weather headlines south of Pittsburgh and along the West
Virginia ridges. Probability of 3 inches in Preston/Tucker Co.
are above 65%; probability of 6 inches ranges from 40% to 60%.
There is still some ensembles that have a northern track, which
could raise the snowfall amounts in the Pittsburgh metro region.
The 90th to 10th percentile difference over the Pittsburgh
region is 0 to 4 inches of snow.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
After a brief period of clearing, a crossing shortwave and
associated sfc front will result in stratocu across the region
early this morning, with a 50% chance of MVFR along the boundary
before daybreak, persisting north along the I-80 corridor until
noon with the crossing shortwave. Based on latest guidance, IFR
is highly unlikely (less than 5% chance). Building high
pressure and dry advection will erode the stratocu layer through
the day.
The boundary layer will remain mixed with the crossing front,
keeping winds elevated until lessening and veering later today
as the mentioned high pressure moves over the region and the
pressure gradient lessens.
Outlook...
A quick-moving upper shortwave to the north will push low
pressure through the region Saturday, returning restrictions and
primarily rain to terminals (with 50-80% probability for a
period of freezing rain at FKL/DUJ). Freezing rain can't be
ruled out at other terminals, but impacts are likely short-lived
as warm advection aids rain thermal profiles.
Additional low pressure systems could impact restrictions and
create wintry precipitation Tuesday and Thursday of next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/MLB
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 7, 12:46 AM EST---------------
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