IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 12:58 AM EST218
FXUS63 KIWX 040558
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1258 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and freezing rain are anticipated late Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Freezing rain may be most prolonged in
Hillsdale and surrounding counties.
- Another storm system brings mixed precipitation this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
Clouds thinned this afternoon to provide a dose of spring-fever as
temperatures soared into 50s, exceeding 60 degrees at some stations.
Even far-southern MI is making their way toward 50. "Spring" is
short-lived as a cold front is just northwest of our area associated
with an eastern-IA surface low. Northwest wind settles in from
northwest to southeast over the next several hours bringing winter-
like temperatures once more. Seasonably cold tonight through Tuesday
night as a result.
We still have just under 48 hours to resolve the final details, but
the primary item of interest continues to be the freezing rain risk
late Wednesday through Wednesday night. While not a slam dunk,
confidence in increasing in a 6 to 9 hour window of freezing rain.
The duration of FZRA appears to be longest over Hillsdale and
surrounding counties. As is typically the case that far north,
temperatures are forecast to struggle to exceed freezing Wednesday
night as the warm front (best seen at 850mb) struggles to reach
southern MI. This, as high pressure becomes centered over the
Northeast US but isopleths depict lingering influence over the
eastern Great Lakes. While the aformentioned Hillsdale area sees the
longest duration of freezing rain, slippery travel conditions can be
expected as far south as the US 30 corridor.
The freezing rain risk is lower south of US 24 where a quicker
transition to plain-rain is anticipated thanks to a mild thermal
profile. Probabilities of 0.05" or more ice accretion are near 60%
over Hillsdale, Fulton OH, and even parts of Noble county. Along the
US 24 corridor, the probability is about 25%. Precipitation ends
soon after daybreak Thursday.
Another low moves in this weekend. I've maintained the simple
rain/snow mention for now, but forecast soundings depict a FZRA risk
that will need to be monitored.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region.
Much drier air will spread over northern Indiana. Skies will
clear in the lower levels with conditions becoming VFR. Winds
will veer more to the east in time.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 12:58 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
