BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 1:10 AM EST154
FXUS61 KBOX 040610
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
110 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and blustery conditions will return Tuesday following the
passage of a cold front. An active weather pattern develops
later this week as a couple systems move in on Thursday and
again late Saturday into early Sunday. Details are still not
fully refined, but both systems may bring a variety of wintry
precipitation types, including some ice.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Ahead of a cold front passing through early this morning, some
lower clouds and possibly some patchy fog from the prefrontal
warm sector's WAA will be present across the coastal plain and
Cape/Islands. Winds shift more to the WNW and blustery
conditions can be expected as CAA starts to creep into southern
New England. Gusts up to 35 mph can be expected as deep daytime
mixing kicks off for the afternoon and the pressure gradient
remains tight during the daytime hours. Mostly clear skies with
some stray strato-cu can be expected. Highs today expected to
be in the 30s and 40s, with the cooler temps towards the
interior.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:
* Colder overnight with the passage of a cold front and a cold,
dry Wednesday ahead of the next system.
The cold front passes through during the nighttime hours,
leaving colder than normal temperatures in its wake. Strong high
pressure builds in behind the cold front, favoring clearer
skies overnight that will help bring lows into the single digits
and teens across the region. 925 mb temperatures behind this
front sit around -15C by 06z Wednesday. NW winds will also aid
in the continued CAA. This cold air will persist throughout the
day Wednesday as highs sit mostly in the 20s and low 30s across
southern New England. Dry conditions persist before the next
system begins to move in Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated 330 PM
Key Messages:
* High pressure yields dry, but colder than normal weather Wed/Wed
evening.
* More active weather then develops for Thu and then again for late
Sat into early Sun. With a storm track over or very close to SNE,
favoring ptype of a wintry mix (including a period of ice
possible) changing to rain for both systems. However, details
including exact low track and precip type amts and changeovers are
still uncertain for both events.
* With baroclinic zone remaining near the region, a roller-coaster
for temps: starting off colder than normal Wed, then near to above
by late Thu. Brief cooldown Fri/Sat before modifying again by Sun
into Mon.
Details:
With a Rex block over the northeast Pacific this period (positive
height anomaly over/near the Aleutian Islands, coupled with a closed
upper low off the WA/OR coast), an atmospheric river streams across
the CONUS (combined with Gulf moisture) to yield a parade of storms
for SNE this period. The 1st precip event is scheduled for Thu,
followed by another late Sat into early Sun. Given the storm
track/baroclinic zone sets up over or very close to SNE, ptype will
likely be a wintry mix (snow to ice to rain). Given the proximity of
the baroclinic zone to SNE, large temp fluctuations expected ahead and
behind each of these waves.
Precipitation...
Cold/dry high pressure (1030+ mb) advects across the area Wed/Wed
night.
By Thu, next low amplitude baroclinic wave traverses over or near
SNE. Initially, airmass over the region is cold and deep enough to
support snow. However, a storm track over or near SNE supports cold
air eroding, likely yielding snow to a wintry mix (including ice)
and to eventually rain, especially along and south of the low track.
Too early to nail down the details, including exact storm track,
snow amounts and duration of each ptype, that will come over the
next 2 days. Not a lot of qpf with this progressive system, but as
we know, it doesn't take much snow and/or ice to impact travel.
Therefore, expect some travel impacts Thu, more likely across across
the interior (western-central MA).
Behind the departing wave, dry but colder and blustery Fri. Saturday
likely starts cold and dry.
Then almost a rinse and repeat event late Sat into Sat night and
early Sun, with another low tracking over or very close to SNE.
Hence, a wintry mix is likely but way too early for specific snow
and/or ice amounts, along with timing of a changeover. Expect
potential travel impacts, especially across western-central MA.
Drier and colder weather returns later Sun into Mon.
Temperatures...
Temps again will be something of a roller-coaster in this period,
given SNE proximity to the storm track/baroclinic zone. Hence, no
sustained or prolonged periods of colder or warmer than normal
temps.
Chilly Wed/Wed night with 1030+ mb high advecting into the region. A
cold start Thu but moderating Thu afternoon in the coastal plain of
RI/southeast MA, pending eventual storm track. Then colder and
blustery Fri behind departing cold front Thu night. Cold and dry
weather prevails Fri night into at least the first half of Sat. Not
as cold Sat night into early Sun, pending exact track of surface
low. Then back to colder/blustery Sun night and Mon.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence...
Mainly VFR with marginal MVFR to start. Cape and Island
terminals may continue to see occasional LIFR/IFR conditions
until close to sunrise this morning. VFR expected after 10-12z
for all terminals. Gusts up to 30 kts pick up by 19-21z across
most terminals this afternoon/evening. Winds expected to shift
more to the W and WNW as the day progresses.
Tonight...High confidence...
VFR. Gusts to 20-25 kts may persist in some areas for a few
hours after sunset as the front passes through. Winds remain
primarily NW and skies clear as high pressure builds in.
Wednesday...High confidence...
VFR. Dry conditions prevail and WNW winds lighten in the wake
of the frontal passage and high pressure continues to build.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance FZRA, slight chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA,
FZRA, chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
areas of gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Overall high confidence through Tue.
Warm front north of waters today will bring S/SW winds, which
increase tonight to SCA with gusts to 30kt expected. We may see
borderline Gales on outer waters tonight but confidence was not
high enough to justify Gale Warnings there. SCA conditions
persist Wed as cold front moves offshore and shifts winds to W.
We issued SCAs for most of waters starting tonight, but left
Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay out for now since winds
probably won't reach 25kt until sometime Tue.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of freezing
rain, slight chance of snow.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain, snow likely,
freezing rain likely. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ231>235-
237-250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 1:10 AM EST----------------
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