MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 30, 3:55 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...450
FXUS64 KMOB 300955
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
355 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Upper ridging continues to build in over the northern Gulf into our
forecast area through Thursday, with a potent upper low transiting
the central Plains through tonight. A cold front progresses into the
area late tonight into early Friday, bringing with it a line of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. It still appears that everything
will be slightly out of phase for any meaningful severe weather
threat with instability lagging behind and appreciable height falls
remaining to the northwest of the forecast area when the line moves
through. Shear otherwise would be excellent for organized convection
with deep layer shear values around 60 knots. For now, anticipating
a generously low end threat for a strong wind gust or two within a
forced line of showers and isolated storms progressing across the
area early Friday morning over southeastern Mississippi, lingering
into the afternoon hours east of the I-65 corridor.
Rain chances will quickly diminish in the wake of the front on
Friday afternoon into Friday evening with much drier air settling in
behind the front. Temperatures today and Friday will be quite warm
topping out in the lower to middle 70's. Overnight lows tonight will
only fall into the upper 50's and lower 60's. Friday night will be
cooler in the wake of the front with temperatures falling into the
middle and upper 40's, warmest nearer the coast. A High risk of rip
currents continues from this evening through early Saturday morning.
Marine dense fog will likely be a problem for the remainder of
tonight for portions of far southwestern Alabama into the adjacent
marine waters of Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound. Most forecast
guidance continues to advertise lower 60's dewpoints overriding
lower 50's water temperatures with a stout inversion layer evident
on forecast soundings. The only fly in the ointment so to speak for
the rest of tonight into the morning hours is somewhat elevated
925mb winds up around 15 knots. Generally this would deter me from
thinking fog and lean more on the low stratus side, however given
the extent of the inversion layer beneath 925mb makes me lean
towards dense fog being preferred. Further east in the Florida
Panhandle the opposite scenario sets up where much lighter winds
exist through 925mb but the saturated layer is confined primarily to
near the immediate surface with very little evidence of an inversion
layer on forecast soundings. I can't rule out some patchy, locally
dense fog over portions of southern Okaloosa County and
Choctawhatchee Bay, but confidence is low at this time on a more
robust dense fog threat to warrant any advisories. A Dense Fog
advisory remains in effect for southern and central Mobile County
from 3am CST through 9am CST. MM/25
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
The area dries out over the weekend in the wake of a cold front that
sweeps across the region in the near term timeframe. Zonal flow
aloft quickly turns southwesterly as a shortwave trough aloft
meanders toward the western Gulf with ridging aloft to our east
through the early part of next week. In the lower levels, a weak
surface high passes over the region over the weekend. The local area
remains on the western periphery of the high early next week, which
allows onshore flow to become established. Moisture levels increase
early next week with deep onshore flow. While the area generally
remains rain-free through at least Tuesday (can't rule out isolated
showers Tuesday afternoon), the increasing moisture may lead to
increasing chances for fog development. We added patchy fog to the
grids each night early next week. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Light to moderate southeasterlies develop across the marine waters
today with a moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow settling
in tonight into Friday. Light to moderate offshore flow prevails in
the wake of a cold front Friday night into Saturday, tapering to a
light and variable flow by Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory goes into
effect tonight at 9pm and expires by 9am Friday morning. A Marine
Dense Fog advisory remains in effect from 3am through 9am this
morning for Mississippi Sound and Mobile Bay. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 71 63 74 47 70 44 71 47 / 10 30 80 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 68 63 72 50 68 48 70 50 / 0 10 90 10 0 0 0 0
Destin 66 62 70 52 68 51 70 54 / 0 0 80 20 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 75 60 73 45 71 42 75 44 / 0 10 100 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 73 60 72 44 68 42 74 45 / 10 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 75 60 72 44 68 41 73 43 / 10 30 90 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 73 59 75 46 71 43 75 45 / 0 10 90 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ263-265.
High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Friday
night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Friday
night for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 30, 3:55 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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