IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 1:21 PM EST886
FXUS63 KIND 021821
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
121 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Cloudy today and tonight; Warmer.
- Warmer temperatures Monday when highs are expected be well above
normal with highs in the upper 50s and middle 60s.
- Rain will move in on Wednesday and a few thunderstorms are
possible over areas near and south of I-70 late.
- More rain will be possible for the weekend.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Very minor update to the forecast this morning. We've added slight
chance of precipitation to our northern tier as some light echoes
are showing up on radar. This activity should remain very light, and
continue eastward with time while weakening. Temperatures are rising
into the middle 30s so primary precip type is expected to be rain at
all locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 327 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure centered
over the St. Lawrence Valley, dominating the weather across the east
coast and into the deep south. Low pressure was found over the
northern plains states. This was resulting in cyclonic flow across
the plains. The two systems together were producing a southerly and
warm flow of air into the the Ohio Valley and central Indiana.
Aloft, water vapor showed a weak wavy pattern with a weak ridge in
place over the Rockies, a weak trough over the plains and a weak
ridge over the Great Lakes. Plentiful Pacific moisture was found
within the flow aloft, streaming across the CONUS as mainly high
clouds. Upstream of Indiana, over Western KY and western IL, lower
clouds were found. Temperatures were in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Today -
The upper flow across the area is expected to become nearly zonal as
the weak trough aloft quickly moves across the state through day.
Limited deep moisture remains present with this wave and precip was
limited to isolated showers over southern WI. Within the lower
levels, a weak trough will also pass through the day, but westerly
flow will continue to persist with ongoing warm air advection. The
previously mentioned surface low over the northern plains is
expected to make only easterly progress, keeping Indiana in a warm
air advection regime through the day, with little moisture present.
Forecast soundings and time heights show the arrival of lower level
moisture today as lower clouds over KY and IL, advecting northeast
across Indiana. Furthermore, the steady stream of moisture will
remain in place within the quick flow aloft. All of this will add up
to a mostly cloudy day with warmer temperatures due to the warm air
advection. Expect highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Tonight -
Models suggest that tonight zonal flow will remain in place over the
region with no forcing dynamics present within the quick flow aloft.
Surface low pressure is expected to push across Ontario, dragging a
cold front across the upper Midwest. However this will not impact
Central Indiana as we will remain in the warm sector ahead of the
front tonight with ongoing southerly flow in place. Forecast
soundings continue to show plentiful dry air within the lower
levels, but saturation aloft. That saturation is indicative of the
steady stream of high cloud within the zonal flow aloft. Thus will
trend toward a mostly cloudy sky again tonight. Low temperatures
should be warmer given the clouds and warm air advection, with
values in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 327 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
The long term period looks to have a fluctuation of temperatures as
multiple fronts move through as well as a few chances for
precipitation.
WAA will start out the week with highs Monday well above normal, now
expecting to see 60s for much of the forecast area. These should
quickly cool off again as a cold front moves through early in the
day Tuesday. This cold front will be associated with a low tracking
across Canada and while there won't be enough moisture with it over
central Indiana, there will be a moistening of the column through
the day.
Another surface low impacting the region will quickly follow, this
time tracking from the central plains into the Great Lakes region.
Ahead of the low will advect ample moisture from the Gulf while the
associated warm front lifts northward through the forecast area.
Rain will move in from the south and may enter as early as before
daybreak Wednesday. Enough instability is expected by the afternoon
and evening to potentially see embedded thunderstorms. Models
continue to show the warm front itself passing through late
Wednesday, making the high of the day most likely to occur during
the overnight hours. Made some adjustments to guidance to account
for the timing of the high. However, the cold front should also
quickly follow Thursday, returning nearer to normal temps Thursday
night into Friday.
With all that said for the midweek forecast, it should be noted that
confidence on exact temperatures is lower than usual as they will
depend greatly on the exact timing and location of the fronts as
they pass through.
A surface high will take charge at the end of the week, bringing a
break in PoPs before additional chances return for the weekend due
to another system modeled to impact the region. There is some
variability at this time whether that will track closer to the Great
Lakes or closer to the Tennessee or Ohio Vallies.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings to diminish, brief IFR possible early in TAF period.
- Wind gusts up to 25kt this afternoon and again on Monday.
Discussion:
Satellite imagery shows stratus beginning to diminish across central
Indiana. Ceilings are generally between 1000 and 1500 ft agl, with
some lower values reported from HUF to LAF of 800-900 ft. Stratus
should continue to thin through the afternoon with VFR conditions
returning to all terminals.
This evening, southwest winds quickly diminish and become
southeasterly for a time overnight. On Monday, the surface pressure
gradient tightens again allowing for south-southwesterly winds to
return with gusts up to 25kt.
Occasional mid to upper-level clouds can be expected at times
through the TAF period, with intervals of SCT to BKN skies.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 1:21 PM EST---------------
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