IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 5:21 PM EST254
FXUS63 KIND 012221
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
521 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing cloudiness tonight, chance of fog and drizzle by
morning.
- Warmer temperatures Sunday and especially Monday when highs are
expected be well above normal with highs in the upper 50s and middle
60s.
- Rain will move in on Wednesday and a few thunderstorms are
possible over areas near and south of I-70 late.
- More rain will be possible for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
Surface high pressure continues to slide eastward through the upper
Great Lakes today. Winds have gradually become southeasterly in
response, and should become more southerly with time through the
evening. The southerly flow will allow moisture to flow back
northward overnight, leading to thick cloud cover by morning. In
fact, these clouds are currently located along the Kentucky
Tennessee state line and have been quite resilient so far today.
Guidance brings these clouds rapidly northward after about 06z.
Model soundings are favorable for mist and drizzle, especially
across the northern two thirds of our CWA. Enhanced lift from an
approaching short wave and warm air advection should increase
mist/drizzle chances. Therefore, we've added a chance of fog and
drizzle to the forecast from 10z to 15z tomorrow.
Low stratus and associated mist/drizzle likely lingers into the
afternoon Sunday. The challenging aspect of the forecast resides in
how long these clouds linger, which has big implications on high
temperatures. Global models tend to allow the low clouds to retreat
more quickly than the higher resolution short term guidance. In
solutions where clouds exit quickly, temperatures rebound well into
the 50s. Where clouds hang on, the opposite is depicted, with some
models showing highs struggling to climb out of the 40s. We will
reduce highs from what the blend shows, given how stratus tends to
linger a bit more than modeled this time of the year. However, we
still expect some clearing and combined with the warm southerly flow
temperatures in the high 40s/low 50s seems reasonable. That being
said, forecast confidence is lower than normal for high temperatures
tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
A couple of low pressure systems will bring rain chances to central
Indiana next week with the best chances focusing in on Wednesday and
Thursday as a warm front is expected to lift northeast across the
area Wednesday night followed by a cold front Thursday. DESI LREF
75th percentile surface CAPEs from 200-500 J/kg support thunderstorm
chances Wednesday late over areas near and south of I-70. Meanwhile,
deep moisture, synoptic forcing and warm advection support 80% PoPs.
More rain is possible next weekend as a system approaches from the
Plains. Confidence on timing and coverage of precip with the latter
one is much lower due to temporal and spacial differences in the
models and ensembles.
Aside from the rain chances, temperatures will be the big highlight
as the zonal flow will keep the colder air bottled up well to the
north and allow for mostly well above normal temperatures. Monday
looks to be the mildest day as breezy southwest winds ahead of a
cold front, advancing from the northwest, should allow temperatures
to top out in the upper 50s to middle 60s or 20+ degrees or so above
normal. After coordinating with adjacent offices, used the higher
CONSall winds and gusts based on the potential for some sunshine
aided mixing and a tight pressure gradient Also, went higher than
the DESI grand ensemble 90 percent 2 meter temperatures.
Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday as a dry cold front
moves through. They will bounce back up again Wednesday as a warm
front approaches and fall back again Thursday in the wake of a
cold front. Even still, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 521 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings return late tonight with IFR likely for Sunday
morning
- Mist/drizzle with visibility reductions Sunday morning...
especially at KHUF and KLAF
- Southwest winds may periodically gust up to 20kts Sunday afternoon
at KBMG and KIND
Discussion:
A high pressure ridge passing through the lower Great Lakes has
aided in scouring out the stratus from central Indiana this
afternoon. Cirrus is expanding back into the area however and will
thicken through the early overnight. E/SE winds at around 10kts will
gradually veer to a S/SE direction late tonight.
Stratus currently present across the Tennessee and lower Ohio
Valleys has started to drift and expand northward over the last
couple hours. This trend will continue overnight aided by a
persistent low level southerly flow. RH progs and model soundings
support moisture becoming trapped beneath a sharp inversion by
predawn Sunday. MVFR stratus will expand across the terminals as a
result after 08-09Z slipping to IFR after daybreak. Soundings become
suggestive of drizzle as well towards daybreak Sunday with a broad
layer of dry air above the inversion...especially at KHUF and KLAF
where fog is likely to be more prevalent.
The onset of deeper mixing within the boundary layer by midday
Sunday will allow any visibility restrictions to dissipate while
also allowing for ceilings to lift through the afternoon with VFR
conditions returning by late day into Sunday evening. SW winds will
become sporadically gusty Sunday afternoon up to 20kts focused
mainly at KBMG and KIND.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 5:21 PM EST---------------
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