PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 12:46 PM EST104
FXUS61 KPBZ 021746
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1246 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain returns this afternoon with a rain/snow mix primarily north
of Pittsburgh. Another widespread precipitation system is
expected Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures remain near to
above average through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain this afternoon with a rain/snow mix primarily north of
Pittsburgh.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Southwesterly flow will increase ahead of approaching low
pressure, ramping up warm advection which will increase
temperatures into the 40s by this afternoon for Pittsburgh and
areas to the south. Light precipitation associated with the
mentioned low will overspread the area after overcoming a
substantial this afternoon, most widespread north of
Pittsburgh. Given warming temperatures, most of this is expected
to be rain, but areas north of I-80 and the Laurels may begin
as mixed precipitation or snow. Models keep the northeast corner
of our forecast area (i.e. Venango, Forest, Clarion, Jefferson
and into Indiana) just below freezing at the surface for much of
the afternoon. The warm nose around 925-850mb appears to hover
just around or below freezing at that time. Any additional
warming in this layer, with still-freezing surface temperatures
could allow brief periods of sleet and/or freezing rain to mix
in. Wet bulbing may also play a factor at onset given dewpoint
depressions of around 15 degrees on average. Will continue to
monitor precipitation and road temperatures for the need of any
quick advisories for freezing rain. Confidence in this remains
low, and any impacts would likely be low or very short-
lived...but it's a non-zero probability. Another consideration
is that with the rain yesterday, roadways may be cleared or
partially cleared of any prior treatment.
Precipitation will quickly exit the area this evening as the
shortwave pulls east. Continued warm advection overnight will
promote above-average lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing warmth on Monday, with cooler temperatures again
Tuesday.
- Light rain chances Monday night with a cold front.
- Dry weather Tuesday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Warm advection in southwesterly flow will intensify on Monday
as 850s gain +6C by the afternoon. This will boost daytime high
temperatures into the 50s for much of the region, with a 70-80%
chance of hitting 60F for the first time this year south of the
Mason-Dixon.
Low pressure crossing from Ontario into Quebec will pull a cold
front through the region Monday night. In the absence of deeper
moisture, brief and light scattered showers is all that is
expected Monday evening into the overnight.
Better cold advection is expected Tuesday morning behind the
front, keeping highs near average. Elongated high pressure
across the northern US into the Great Region will keep dry
weather in the forecast Tuesday with partially clearing skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain and snow chances return Wednesday/Thursday and again
Saturday as a series of low pressure systems move through.
- Temperature remains above-average.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence grows in the timing of a Wednesday/Thursday system as
the persistent PacNW closed low opens and phases into the
broader flow, leading to a strong shortwave trough crossing into
south- central Canada by Thursday. At the surface, weak low
pressure will move just south of or directly over the region
Wednesday into Thursday. Rain is likely to begin later in the
day Wednesday and linger through Thursday before dissipating
Friday morning with building surface high pressure. At this
time, it still appears as though thermal profiles will support
mainly rain, though a period of freezing rain is possible at
onset on Wednesday into Wednesday night, and a changeover to
light snow is possible on the backside early Friday as cooler
air moves in.
After a short reprieve, ensembles show high probability of
another system crossing the area in the Saturday into Sunday
timeframe, though large discrepancies in the strength of this
system exist for now.
Temperatures will remain above-average with high confidence
through Thursday, with near seasonal temperatures returning by
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clouds have filtered in quickly ahead of an approaching short
wave. At this time many terminals have entered CIG restrictions
and the last few at VFR (MGW/DUJ/LBE) aren't expected to hold
out much longer.
A shield of rain and snow is currently sliding through NW OH.
Warm air advection is also racing north into the region. Wet-
bulbing would lean towards a possibility of some ZR across a
portion of the region but confidence in this region-wide remains
low as it seems likely WAA will win out PIT on south. North of
PIT and especially north of I-80 there stands a better chance to
see a brief period of wintry mix or ZR before a changeover to
rain or snow. As such rain has been kept as the P-type in all
TAFs except FKL/DUJ. It is likely that no precip can make it as
far south as MGW/ZZV.
With saturation of the column it seems likely that IFR conditions
settle into FKL/DUJ but probabilities at all other terminals do
not climb above 40%. Organized precip doesn't last very long and
should be fleeting across the region by 00z. Behind this precip
it is likely that the region clings to MVFR. Some model
soundings hint at the possibility of fog development late
tonight but confidence in this remains low at this time.
Outlook... Some improvement is expected on Monday as drier air
advects in from the south, though it will be short lived as a
passing cold front overnight Monday night returns precip chances and
another round of restrictions. Periods of gusty winds may also
develop as low pressure crosses north of the region through early
week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...Rackley/88
LONG TERM...Cermak/Rackley
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 12:46 PM EST---------------
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