PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 5, 12:31 PM CDT932
FXUS63 KPAH 051731
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today, ending this
evening as a frontal boundary passes through the area.
- High temperatures will cool from the mid to upper 80s
Thursday and Friday to the upper 70s and low 80s for the
weekend into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Updated aviation section for 18z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
A cold front will pass through the area from the west and northwest
through early this afternoon. As this happens, a broken line of
showers and thunderstorms will push through the area along and ahead
of the frontal boundary. Forcing isn't particularly strong along the
boundary, but enough to keep scattered showers and storms
through early afternoon. Instability is expected to be around
500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front, this will allow for thunder,
but storms aren't expected to be strong or severe this morning
as shear is fairly weak ahead of the front. Additional showers
and storms may develop along the front over the eastern portions
of the area, western KY into southwest IN as the frontal
boundary exits to the east. High pressure will then begin
building in from the northwest overnight, bringing and end to
the precipitation.
Drier conditions will return for the end of the week
(Thursday/Friday) as high pressure continues to build across the
region.
A closed low is still expected to set up over the Great Lakes for
the weekend into early next week. This will set the stage for
northwest flow aloft along with several disturbances in the flow
around the upper-level low, especially Saturday into Sunday. This
will allow for intermittent increases in cloud cover and at least
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend. Expect
precipitation chances to increase as it becomes more clear on the
timing of each one of the aformentioned disturbances. This will also
lead to a bit cooler conditions across the Quad State area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Isolated/scattered shra/tsra possible across the area this
afternoon with passage of a weak cold front, but chances too
low to include in TAFs at this time. MVFR cigs expected at all
TAF sites through 20-22z with occasional breaks to VFR. Low VFR
cigs will becoming predominant after 22z, with clouds scattering
out by mid to late evening. South to southwest winds at 6-12kts
with occasional gusts to near 20 kts will become west late this
afternoon into early evening,becoming light overnight. No vsby
restrictions unless affected by isolated convection.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RST
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 5, 12:31 PM CDT---------------
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