IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 31, 12:25 AM EST667
FXUS63 KIWX 310525
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of rain arrive tonight and persist into Friday.
- Dry conditions should prevail into early next week with near
or above normal temperatures.
- Precipitation chances increase by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
Deep closed low continues to be well depicted on water vapor,
now entering SW Kansas. LLJ continues to ramp up ahead of this
feature with the edge of mid 40 or higher dewpoints already
entering southern IL and expected to continue rapidly NE over
the next 12 to 18 hours. Some patches of light rain and drizzle
have been noted over central Il over the past several hours on
the leading edge of increasing isentropic lift. Initial surge
will have some dry air to overcome, but do expected rain to take
shape this evening from SW to NE. From there models signals are
fairly clear on a dry slot likely taking shape as the stronger
lift shifts north and east. Precip may come to a stop or
transition to more of a drizzle/fog setup depending just how
much low level lift remains. Pops have been adjusted to reflect
a "drier" trend overnight, but kept with just a rain mention. As
dewpoints increase, at least patchy fog should take shape given
the cold ground (currently froze to 7 inches here). Patchy fog
introduced through Fri AM for now. Overall rainfall amounts
through 7 am Fri aren't expected to be overly heavy, but a
quarter to half inch of rain seems plausible (heaviest south).
Given the frozen ground, this will runoff or pond in some areas,
but no hydro concerns are expected overnight.
Next challenge will be as the upper low begins to eject and open
as it moves towards the region. Models signals remain clear of a
strong deformation/fgen zone materializing Friday morning and
persisting through the day before shifting E as the trough moves
away. While more broadbrushed pops are in place, highest pops
and QPF potential resides in the NW 1/4 or so of the area with
portions of LaPorte and Berrien county possibly in the axis of
heaviest rainfall in our area. Wherever this sets up another
half to maybe 1 inch of rain could fall. While some thawing may
have occurred from the warmer temps and rainfall, much will
still end up ponding or runoff with some small potential for
flooding issues. While flash flood guidance is still high (2" or
more), the ground conditions to warrant a marginal risk for
flash flooding in the ERO outlook. Ice jams could become a
larger issues as well as the rainfall runs off. As already
mentioned, the band of rain will quickly shift east, but some
question remains as to what condition it will be as it reaches
the 69 corridor. Have left some slgt chc to chc pops for now.
Colder air filters in behind the system for a brief visit Friday
night into Sat (although not likely arriving till after any
precip departs), but a fast return to warmer temps occurs Sunday
and into early next week before a frontal boundary/baroclinic
zone sets up somewhere in the region mid to late week with
models in poor agreement on handling of several features that
could bring a decent system to the area. Plenty of time to sort
that out.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025
The initial band of rain has lifted north, well ahead of a
surface low over northern MO. This system will move quickly east
and spread more rain back across northern Indiana. IFR
conditions should prevail through most - if not the entire TAF
period, although some breaks in the clouds are likely near or
after 06Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 31, 12:25 AM EST---------------
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