CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 6:59 AM EST310
FXUS61 KCLE 021159
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
659 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts northeast across the area today, followed by
a cold front on Monday. High pressure briefly builds in on
Tuesday, before low pressure impacts the region Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7:00 AM Update...
Just sent a special weather statement for the wintry mix
expected late this morning into early this afternoon from Lorain
to Knox Counties and points west. Highest confidence for impacts
from this is in and around the Toledo area where timing of
precipitation matches best with colder surface temperatures.
Elsewhere, impacts will likely be brief.
Previous Discussion...
A warm front extending from a low over the upper Midwest will
approach from the southwest today. Isentropic lift has led to
the development of precipitation ahead of this warm front, with
reflectivity returns observed on radar across Illinois, western
Michigan, and other areas to the west. The general forecast
remains relatively similar to what we have been producing the
past 24 hours or so. Precipitation will move eastward across the
forecast area, initially beginning as a wintry mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain before transitioning over to all rain
as warm advection from the southwest leads to above freezing
temperatures. Best potential for freezing rain is west of I-77
and north of US-30 (especially near the Toledo area where a
dusting of snow/sleet is also possible), which is generally
where precipitation moves in before surface temperatures climb
to above freezing. Where freezing rain does occur, slick
conditions are expected on untreated surfaces given cold
antecedent temperatures this morning.
For Ohio counties east of I-77, wintry mix is in the forecast
but more likely to be very brief before quickly switching over
to rain, largely to the afternoon timing of precipitation (and
thus more likely for temperatures to have warmed up by then).
Northwest Pennsylvania will be cold enough for a few hours of
snow, with light accumulations of an inch or less possible,
mainly east of I-79 and south of I-90. A light dusting of snow
may be possible elsewhere in Northwest Pennsylvania and in
parts of Northeast Ohio.
Precipitation is likely to fully exit the area early tonight,
though some lingering rain/drizzle is possible in Northwest
Pennsylvania. Cloudy conditions with models suggesting patchy
fog and drizzle possibly developing late tonight into Monday
morning, though confidence wasn't quite there due to light
southerly flow disrupting this development. Something worth
monitoring though. Warm, southerly flow should result in a
substantial temperatures increase during the day Monday with
afternoon highs into the 50s!
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will begin with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday night, bringing a brief chance for light
rain along the front. Lingering low-level moisture behind the front
could result in additional isolated light rain and/or snow showers
into Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, attention then turns towards Wednesday and Wednesday
night as a mid-level shortwave moves east across the Midwest,
underneath a more broad upper-level ridging pattern. Models are
becoming more aligned in the potential for wintry precipitation,
including freezing rain, Wednesday evening and Wednesday night as
low-level cold air remains in place to the north of a stationary
boundary, courtesy of the remnant Monday night cold front.
Uncertatiny begins to increase Wednesday night as ensemble members
differ on the timing of the warm air advection in response to rapid
cyclogenesis resulting from the phasing of the southern and northern
jet streams. Given ensemble members depicting easterly winds for the
onset of precipitation, at least a brief period of freezing rain
appears reasonable across much of the area, and particularly across
North and Northwest Ohio Wedneday evening and overnight where low-
level cold air may persist for longer. At this time, GEFS/GEPS
ensemble probabilities depict a 30 to 50% chance for at least a
tenth of ice accumulation.
Eventually, the deepening surface low will move northeast through
the Lower Great Lakes, with moderately-high confidence in the low
pressure center being located just to the north and northwest of
Lake Erie by Thursday morning. This will solidly put the
entire area under a warm air advection regime, with precipitation
type becoming all rain by sunrise Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The deepening low pressure will begin to exit northeast into Ontario
and Quebec on Thursday, dragging a cold front east through
the area by late Thursday afternoon and evening. High confidence
exists in a large area of surface high pressure arriving behind the
cold front on Friday, resulting in cool and quiet weather. Another
system will begin to take shape across the Central Plains by late
Friday into Saturday, aided by another potent upper-level trough.
This system could result in another round of wintry precipitation
across the region on Saturday, taking a similar track to the
Wednesday night into Thursday system, and will need to be
monitored.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are observed areawide with high-levels clouds
overhead. Should see conditions quickly deteriorate with lower
ceilings and an area of precipitation moving in from the west
late this morning through the afternoon hours. The precipitation
type forecast will be tricky as forecast challenges include
timing of precipitation from west to east, and warming
temperatures from south to north. Precipitation should begin as
a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain for northern
areas (i.e. Toledo to Cleveland) whereas elsewhere may start
with freezing rain. As temperatures warm, should see a general
precipitation type transition following this pattern:
snow->sleet->freezing rain->rain. Farther to the east we're
likely to see this transition in the early afternoon hours,
though this transition may be a bit quicker to rain given the
later timing and warmer temperatures with precipitation onset.
Areas in Northwest Pennsylvania are most likely to stay as
snow/sleet for longer, with some potential for light snow
accumulations. Precipitation ends from west to east during the
mid to late afternoon hours, possibly lingering in Northwest
Pennsylvania early tonight. With ceilings, should see the entire
area down to the 1000-2000 ft range, with a few hours of less
than 1000 ft, especially northern and eastern sites.
IFR ceilings along with patchy fog/drizzle is possible in some
spots late tonight into Monday morning. Confidence wasn't quite
there to add in most locations, though if model trends continue,
they will need to be added at some point.
Winds are starting off out of the southeast at around 10 knots but
will veer around to the south this morning, increasing to 10 to
13 knots before decreasing to 7 knots or less and becoming
southwest this evening and tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered rain/snow Monday
night. Additional non-VFR is likely with more widespread
precipitation Wednesday through Thursday. Precipitation type is
uncertain for this period but a wintry mix is possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Given that Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until
further notice due to extensive nearshore ice cover, the marine
period overall appears fairly quiet.
Easterly winds this morning will favor a south to southwest
direction this afternoon and overnight, 10 to 15 knots. Winds will
shift towards the northwest and north behind a cold front late
Monday, 10 to 15 knots. Winds will then favor a east to northeast
direction on Tuesday and Wednesday, 10 to 15 knots. A cold front
will move east across Lake Erie on Thursday, ushering in westerly
winds of 15 to 20 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 6:59 AM EST---------------
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