IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 3:02 AM EST211
FXUS63 KIND 290802
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts 20-30mph through this afternoon
- Above average highs mostly in the 40s to low 50s through the
weekend
- Rain expected Thursday evening into Friday, rain amounts 1-1.5
inches likely
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
A stretch of mild weather continues as the overall pattern undergoes
a significant shift from the past few weeks. Surface analysis over
the Eastern CONUS features high pressure along the Gulf coast with a
progressive northern stream jet across the Great Lakes with multiple
surface lows tracking north of the region. Indiana will be placed
right in the middle of these two regimes over the next few days
resulting in mainly dry, yet breezy and mild conditions.
For today, an area of low pressure trecks through eastern Ontario
while pushing a weak, moisture starved cold front southward into
Indiana later thid afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between the
high to the south and lower pressure to the north will keep winds
elavated through the day. Currently a 50 kt low level jet exists
overhead and will be slowly weaknening through the afternoon. The
nocturnal inversion in place is preventing these strong winds from
mixing down to the surface during the early morning hours. Mainly
just gradient winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph expected through
the morning. Surface heating later today will lead to increased
mixing and steepening low level lapse rates which could help bring
higher gusts to the surface. During that same time, the LLJ weakens,
so expect max wind gusts 20-25 mph through the mid afternoon hours
before winds significantly diminish tonight.
Despite a frontal boundary approaching from the north, breezy
conditions, a well mixed boundary layer, and ample sunshine will
help surface temperaures rise into the mid to upper 40s once again.
Center of the surface high slides by to the south tonight, briefly
causing the pressure gradient to collapse and winds to go calm in
portions of Central Indiana. Good conditions for radiational cooling
will likely lead to tonight being a few degrees cooler than the past
few nights, in the mid to upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
Thursday Through Friday.
Southerly surface flow is expected to return Thursday morning ahead
of the arrival of a rain producing system that is expected to impact
central Indiana Thursday night into Friday. Cloud cover is expected
to gradually increase through the day which will limit the solar
heating, but as the southerly flow ramps up, advection of warmer air
should still allow for another day with highs in the upper 40s to
low 50s.
The pattern then will begin to shift late Thursday into Friday as
the aforementioned strong upper level low exits the Four Corners
region and begins to track to the northeast. Models continue to have
a solid handle on the overall synoptic pattern with details in the
exact timing/strength of the low remaining uncertain. Confidence is
high in a widespread moderate to locally heavy rain event beginning
late Thursday through Friday with temperatures warm enough to keep
rain as the only precipitation type.
Total rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches look reasonable with the
strong forcing collocated with widespread moisture advection. There
remains some uncertainty as to the position of the dry slot which
would bring isolated lower amounts along with a frontogenetically
driven band along the TROWAL axis that currently looks to straddle
the northwestern portions of the area.
These rain amounts will lead to additional rises on area rivers and
streams, especially across southern Indiana where the highest total
rainfall is expected. River ensembles show at least a low threat for
minor flooding along the lower White River with action stage likely
along the White River south of Bloomington along with much of the
East Fork White River.
Saturday Through Tuesday.
Cooler but still above normal temperatures are then expected for the
weekend with a low end threat for a few snow showers on the backend
of the Friday system. Dry weather is likely for much if not all of
the weekend with only very low rain chances Sunday as another weak
system passes through the Great Lakes. Another weak cold front looks
likely towards the start of next week, but little to no forcing is
expected along the front which should keep conditions dry. Surface
flow then becomes northerly by Tuesday which will bring the coldest
temperatures of the long term period with morning lows in the 20s
and highs in the 30s.
Looking beyond further into the work week the pattern looks to
remain wetter than normal with additional precipitation likely.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
Impacts:
- Gusty W/SW winds overnight, then W/NW gusts later this afternoon
- Low level wind shear expected at all terminals early this morning
Discussion:
The influence of high pressure to the southwest will keep dry
conditions and mainly clear skies through the forecast period.
Strong low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will aid in
continued brisk surface gusts through the night along with strong
winds through the boundary layer. Low level wind shear concerns will
continue through the overnight hours as a 50 kt west-northwesterly
low level jet slowly weakens by sunrise.
Surface gusts will resume later this afternoon but should not be as
strong as that experienced yesterday with the low pressure moving
away from the region into New England. Other than some very thin
cirrus at times...skies will be clear through Wednesday evening.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...CM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 3:02 AM EST---------------
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