IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 2:20 PM EST363
FXUS63 KIND 281920
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts to 35 mph this afternoon; 20-30mph gusts tonight
through Wednesday
- Above average highs mostly in the 40s to low 50s through the
weekend
- Next chance for precipitation late Thursday into Friday night,
rain amounts over an inch likely for southern portions of the
area
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 220 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
Central Indiana will continue its stretch of mild, windy weather as
surface high pressure remains beneath passing midlevel waves. These
low level height rises are primarily due to the placement of the
upper level jet streams, with Indiana placed right in the middle of
these two regimes (Right Exit, and Left Entrance). These areas are
conducive to broad scale subsidence leading to much drier conditions
despite the passage of mid level waves.
Mostly clear skies will also be likely through the short term with
very dry conditions below 10kft. That said, some passing cirrus will
be possible as jet streaks circulate through the overall upper level
jet stream. While influence from high pressure keeps conditions dry,
the tight pressure gradient and an increasing low level jet pushing
in from the north today will keep conditions rather breezy. Short
term guidance indicates a 35-50 kt low level jet will continue
through the night on the SW flank of a shortwave over the northern
Great Lakes. Despite the loss of heating, mechanical mixing with a
10-15kt gradient wind should allow for occasional gusts to 30MPH
tonight. Low temperatures tonight are expected to remain above
guidance in the mid to potentially upper 30s as breezy conditions
keep the PBL well mixed, limiting diurnal cooling.
Much of the same is expected for tomorrow, just with more subdued
values with the shortwave trough and resulting pressure gradient
pushing eastward. This should lead to gusts between 20-25kt in the
afternoon, once diurnal heating helps destabilized the PBL and
thermal mixing occurs. Temperatures will also be similar with the
overall airmass remaining mostly unchanged.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 220 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
Wednesday Night through Friday...
An upper level low will eject out of the southwestern USA and reach
central Indiana by Friday afternoon. Ahead of the system, the warm
conveyor belt will bring in plentiful moisture, with
precipitable water values over an inch expected.
Forcing will be good with the system as well, with isentropic lift
as well as the potential for some frontogenetic forcing. Given the
plentiful moisture, will go with widespread high PoPs by Thursday
night.
As the best forcing pushes east on Friday, PoPs will diminish during
the day.
Total rainfall amounts in excess of an inch are likely, mainly
across areas from Bloomington to Columbus and south. If
stronger frontogenetical forcing sets up across the area, bands of
heavier rainfall could set up.
Above normal temperatures will continue with warm air brought up
ahead of the system, with highs by Friday in the upper 40s to
middle 50s.
Saturday and Sunday...
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail this
weekend. Saturday will be a little above normal with highs in
the upper 30s to middle 40s, but a warm front will bring highs into
the 50s for Groundhog Day (Sunday). The front won't have enough
forcing or moisture to produce any precipitation as it moves through.
Monday and Tuesday...
High pressure building in behind a cold front will bring
temperatures back closer to normal by Tuesday, with highs cooling
into the 30s to around 40 on Tuesday. Quiet weather is expected as
the high moves in.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
Impacts:
- SW winds increase after 20z this afternoon with gusts to 30kt
Discussion:
VFR expected to persist through the TAF period, main aviation
concern is gusty winds. Winds will become southwesterly from 230-250
deg later this afternoon. An increasing low level jet in addition to
steepening low level lapse rates will result in winds 12-17 kts with
gusts 20-30 kts after 20z. Winds may remain elevated through the
overnight hours tonight as well. No cig or vis concerns through the
period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 2:20 PM EST---------------
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