JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 7:05 PM EST244
FXUS63 KJKL 280005 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
705 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will gradually trend well above normal through the
end of the work week.
- A system will approach the area towards the end of the work
week, bringing a soaking rain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding over the southern
part of Kentucky while a cold front is moving through the Great
Lakes to our north. This has left eastern Kentucky between
systems with milder conditions and mostly clear skies.
Temperatures are coming off the highs of the day with sunset, but
most places are still above freezing. Specifically, readings vary
from the right around freezing in the sheltered valleys to near 40
degrees on the ridges. Meanwhile, amid westerly winds of 5 to 8
mph, dewpoints are holding in the teens across just about the
entire area but with some low 20s noted in the far southeast.
That cold front does approach the area later tonight bringing in
some mid and high level clouds mainly for the northeast portion of
the state. This will also serve to limit the ridge to valley
temperature drop off in those areas into the pre-dawn hours, but
sheltered spots they will still be significantly colder than the
surrounding hills. Have updated the forecast to account for these
difference in the hourly Ts and spot forecast lows. Did also
include the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with
this update. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
Quieter weather prevails through the short-term as confluent flow
aloft will keep skies mostly clear with dry weather. The upper
disturbance that brought light precipitation to southern parts of
the forecast area overnight will continue to move away from the
area. Meanwhile, another disturbance will dive southeast across the
area late tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing a few high clouds
but also a modest increase in westerly winds tonight. These winds
become more southwesterly and persist into Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The low-level warm advection and better mixing will likely
prevent many areas from fully decoupling, thus producing warmer
overnight lows, especially Wednesday night. Nevertheless, the
forecast still undercuts NBM temperatures in the more sheltered
valleys by several degrees both tonight and Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 555 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
Amplified and progressive flow will become more zonal by this
weekend and early next week. The southern stream will be
particularly active through the end of the work week, bringing
soaking rains to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Thursday night
through Friday night. Temperatures will trend well above normal,
peaking at around 10 degrees above normal readings for late
January. Drier weather takes hold for the second half of the
weekend and generally holds into early next week. A temporary
cooldown will occur on Saturday, before readings generally warm
back above normal into early next week.
Quiet conditions will be in place Wednesday/Wednesday night, as
short wave ridging and associated 500 mb height rises shift from
the southern/central Plains and middle Mississippi Valley to the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by early Thursday morning. Highs will
average in the lower 50s, although cooler overnight lows, mainly
in the 20s for Wednesday night, will keep the average temperature
just a few degrees above normal. Meanwhile, a deeper closed low
will be rotating east from the Desert Southwest region. This
feature will continue on its easterly heading, crossing over the
southern Plains/middle Mississippi Valley, and then eventually the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys Thursday through Friday night. Surface
low pressure will organize over eastern Texas, then curl
northward through the middle Mississippi Valley, before shifting
east over the Ohio Valley.
Rain will overspread the area late Thursday, as stout 850 mb
moisture transport moves in from the southwest, especially
Thursday night into Friday. This will also be accompanied by a
period of stronger upper level support, resulting in some heavier
rainfall rates. Still, given the progressive nature of the
system, as well as near to below normal streamflows across the
area in place, not expecting any significant hydro impacts with
this event at this time, besides the small threat of some minor
low lying area nuisance flooding. Another factor will be the
evolution of deeper convection that takes place over the
lower/middle Mississippi Valley and into the Deep South, as this
can rob our area of the better moisture transport, limiting the
heavier rainfall rates. Will await further model trends,
particularly once the time scale falls within the HREF guidance,
before highlighting anything specifically.
Overnight lows will modify to the 30s and 40s, while highs remain
in the 50s. Steadier rainfall will diminish by Friday night,
before ending by Saturday night. Generally dry weather can be
expected for Sunday and Monday, with only a dry frontal passage
taking place by late Monday. Temperatures will cool off behind the
departed system on Saturday, with the blended guidance quite a
bit warmer than the latest ECMWF/GFS MOS guidance. There has been
some model discontinuity at this time over the past few runs, so
will stick with the blended guidance, but could see these numbers
cooling more toward the operational MOS, if these trends hold.
Readings will then return back to above normal once again into
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR conditions under clear to mostly clear skies will hold
through the TAF period. An approaching cold front from the
northwest will cross the area between 09 and 15Z Tuesday morning.
Ahead of this disturbance, an increasing pressure gradient will
promote modest wind speed increases to between 5 and 10 kts
generally from the southwest towards, and following, dawn. Aloft,
the stronger low- level warm advection will produce LLWS of
nearly 40 kts from the west across all the terminals during the
overnight hours.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 7:05 PM EST---------------
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