BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 10:00 AM EST172
FXUS61 KBOX 251500
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1000 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of colder than normal temperatures today, then
mainly dry and more seasonable temperatures are expected Sunday
through Tuesday. Turning colder behind a cold front Tuesday
night into Wednesday then another clipper low may bring some
light snow sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night. Another round
of very cold and blustery conditions will follow for the end of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clear skies abound this morning beneath building high pressure.
Forecast remains on track.
Previous Discussion...
High pres moves to the mid Atlc coast today with surface ridging
extending north into SNE. This will bring lots of sunshine today,
although some mid-high clouds will be moving into the region during
the afternoon ahead of mid level shortwave moving into the Gt Lakes.
Just slight cooling noted at 925 mb today so do not expect much
change in daytime temps, perhaps a degree or 2 colder than
yesterday. Highs should range from the upper 20s to lower 30s, with
mid 20s higher elevations. Light winds in the morning will become W-
SW 10-15 mph with a few higher gusts which will make it feel
a bit colder.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...
Mid level shortwave approaches from the Gt Lakes which will bring
more cloud cover to SNE. Expect dry weather but will have to watch
for the possibility of a few snow showers near the south coast late
tonight as the column moistens here. A modest low level jet develops
ahead of the shortwave resulting in SW flow and milder temps than
recent nights. Lows will drop into the teens and lower 20s, but
expect rising temps in the coastal plain overnight. Dewpoints will
also be rising into the 20s overnight, but it appears there will be
a large enough T/Td spread to preclude black ice formation but we
will continue to monitor.
Sunday...
The shortwave moves across the region in the morning before exiting
in the afternoon. Low risk for a few snow showers early in the day
along the south coast, Cape/Islands within the enhanced moisture
plume, otherwise clouds will gradually give way to partly to mostly
sunny skies as good drying moves in behind the shortwave and weak
front. It will become breezy as soundings show deepening and
well mixed boundary layer supporting west wind gusts to 25-35 mph.
The gusty winds will be accompanied by milder temps as 925 mb temps
rise to -4C. Expect highs upper 30s to around 40, but low-mid 30s
higher elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Breezy to windy conditions Monday and Tuesday, with the strongest
wind gusts during the daylight hours on Tuesday. It is possible a
wind headline could be needed for some locations on Tuesday.
* Benign weather continue into Tuesday. Then, a weak clipper system
crosses the region on Wednesday, bringing light snow showers to
the region, though confidence in the track is between low and
moderate.
* Near-normal temperatures into Tuesday, then turning colder
Wednesday through late week.
No significant changes to the extended forecast as we anticipate
benign weather conditions into the first-half of next week. Early
this week, Monday and Tuesday, there are breezy conditions due to a
modest 850mb jet aloft. BUFKIT forecast soundings have enough mixing
of the boundary layer to tap into these west/southwest wind aloft
and transport down to the surface. Global ensembles highlight parts
of northern Worcester County and northwest Massachusetts having the
greatest probability, 80+ percent, for gusts at least 34 kt/40 mph,
elsewhere, gusts of 30 to 30 mph remain reasonable. If jet dynamics
were to increase, could have areas of stronger gusts and potentially
wind related headlines.
Precipitation-wise, outside of a nuisance snow showers, both Monday
and Tuesday are dry. Will focus on Wednesday for the next chance for
active weather, as a clipper system crosses the southern Great
Lakes. As of this time, there remains a good level of uncertainty
with respect to the track of the clipper/low pressure system.
Yesterday's run on the 00z GFS showed the clipper phasing with a
southern stream system. After reviewing tonight's guidance this
solution no longer exits. The clipper moves through New England, the
main axis of moisture is focused on the northern side of the system.
There remains uncertainty if it travels across northern New England
which leads to less QPF and slightly warmer temperatures, but a
passage further south may lead to widespread QPF and colder
temperatures, resulting in light snow showers Wednesday afternoon.
But those details will be ironed out over the next couple of days.
Relatively quiet weather Thursday and Friday, surface high pressure
noses in from the south west. PWATs fall to less than 20 percent of
normal for late January as colder Arctic air returns. A mid-level
trough and shortwave passage will try to induce show showers, but
given the lack of available moisutre, would not expect anything of
much significance.
Temperatures-wise, it is near-normal both Monday and Tuesday, highs
are in the middle and upper 30s. Wednesday is more of a transition
day with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Thursday and Friday
will have another shot of cold weather with sub-freezing highs for
Thursday and Friday. In addition, will have the potential for gusty
winds late week, which could result in sub-zero wind chills
Thursday night into early Friday. Given this is still a week out
there is "pounds of time" for things to change.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Sunday...High Confidence.
VFR through the period. Mainly mid-high cloud cigs developing
late today into tonight with some strato-cu. Clearing Sun
afternoon. Light wind becoming W-SW 8-15 kt this afternoon, then
SW 5-15 kt tonight. Increasing W wind Sun with gusts to 20-30
kt developing.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
NW winds this morning will become W-SW 15-20 kt this afternoon with
a few higher gusts.
Tonight and Sunday...High confidence.
As modest low level jet develops, SW winds will increase tonight
with gusts 25-30 kt, then W gusts 25-30 kt Sunday. Seas build to 5-7
ft over the southern waters. SCA in effect tonight and Sunday.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Areas of rough seas.
Monday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough
seas up to 12 ft.
Tuesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
snow, slight chance of rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ230-
236.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dooley
NEAR TERM...KJC/BW
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...KJC/Dooley
MARINE...KJC/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 10:00 AM EST----------------
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