PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 3:01 AM CST379
FXUS63 KPAH 250901
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
301 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a very cold mid-month, temperatures warm to near normal
for the weekend, rising to above normal for much of the week
ahead.
- The next chance for precipitation is now projected to arrive
late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
A band of high clouds is moving eastward just to the north of
the I-64 corridor. Otherwise, clear skies are present for most
of the Quad State through the remainder of the overnight hours.
Areas where winds became calm have dipped to the lower 20s.
Otherwise, temperatures are holding in the mid to upper 20s in
southwesterly flow around 4-8 mph.
High pressure is located over the Southeastern U.S. while a
system is moving across Northern Canada as upper-levels have
zonal flow. Southwesterly winds become breezy today ahead of a
dry cold frontal passage tonight. Highs today lift to the mid
to upper 40s with a few 50s possible. High pressure drops from
the Dakotas towards the region Sunday bringing a temporary
cooling to near normal temperatures for Sunday. A system drifts
across the south Sunday with some models bringing rain to the
KY/TN border, a possible later inclusion though for now the
forecast will remain dry with this system.
Troughing digs in the east early week though local 500mb levels
remain fairly steady. Low pressure dipping into the Great Lakes
Wednesday brings another dry frontal passage through. Models are
increasingly pointing towards precipitation Wed/Thurs being
associated with a drifting system over Texas rather than energy
being ejected from a closed low in California. The closed low
finally emerges from the Four Corners region late week and
lifts northeastward through the Plains as a large area of high
pressure is set up over the East Coast. Models differ on
surface low development, either associating it with the upper
low in the Plains or with the Texas disturbance that kicks
northeastward late week. For now it appears that late Thursday
night through Friday into Saturday has the better chances for
precip. There is some potential for mixing of snow Thursday
night before switching over to rain Friday, but appreciable
wintry accumulations are unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025
VFR conditions will persist through Saturday with scattered high
level cloud cover from time to time. Light southerly winds this
evening will pick up overnight, then increase from the southwest
around 10 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots by late morning
and afternoon Saturday. Included low level wind shear overnight
into early Saturday morning before surface winds increase later
in the morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...RJP
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 3:01 AM CST---------------
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