BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 2:40 PM EST646
FXUS61 KBOX 231940
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
240 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures moderate through Saturday, but still remaining below
normal, just not as cold as earlier in the week. Other than
scattered snow showers on the Cape and Islands this afternoon/early
evening and passing snow showers associated with a Clipper low
Sunday, mainly dry weather is expected into early next week.
Temperatures are expected to rebound to near seasonable normals for
Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 PM Update:
This evening and overnight...
Fairly pleasant conditions (compared to the bitter cold earlier this
week) late this afternoon will continue this evening and overnight.
Short wave trough moving across SNE late Thu, exits offshore this
evening and overnight, followed by subsidence and a reinforcing shot
of cold/dry air. Temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s at 2 pm (most
places remained below freezing), will slip into the single digits
and teens overnight, courtesy of light winds, dry airmass and most
clear conditions. These temps are slightly colder than average for
late Jan. With the trough passage, Cape Cod and the Islands will see
a clearing trend. Also, diurnal scattered SCU over eastern CT/RI
will dissipate with sunset. Southwest breeze 10-15 mph this
afternoon, shifts to the west this evening and overnight. Slackening
after sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM update...
Friday and Friday night...
Northern and southern streams remain separate/unphased, thus dry
weather continues. Confluent flow aloft promotes another dry day and
WNW winds combined with -14C at 850 mb, supports highs in the upper
20s and lower 30s. About 5 degs below normal. A modest west wind 10-
15 mph will provide a bit of a wind chill. Mostly sunny in the
morning will give way to sct-bkn afternoon SCU. Overall, fairly
pleasant for this time of year.
Dry but chilly Fri night, as high pressure advects over the area.
Lows mainly in the single digits, 10-15 in the urban areas,
including the coastline, Cape Cod and the Islands.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM update...
Key Messages:
* Benign weather and mainly dry conditions for much of the region
for the extended forecast. A weak clipper system, passing to our
north on Sunday could lead to a couple of light snow showers for
far western southern New England.
* Seasonably cold on Saturday, followed by near normal temperatures
Sunday through at least Tuesday.
Benign weather continues for much of the extended forecast period
with a 1030mb +/-5mb high pressure anchored across the eastern third
of the CONUS. Will have a couple of very weak disturbances traverse
the region, but not expecting any notable impacts. On Sunday, a weak
area of low pressure associated with a subtle mid-level trough and
shortwave cross northern New England. There is very little moisture
associated with this, PWATs are less than 0.2", at best there would
be potential for snow showers in western MA and northwest CT. Did
keep 'slight chance' POPs in those locations. As prior discussions
mentioned, there is no significant systems on the horizon. Guidance
has high pressure to our south through the middle part of next week,
but a couple of moisture starved clippers dive out of Canada and
cross northern New England between Monday and Wednesday. The
ensembles paint a pretty dry picture, with limited opportunities for
QPF.
Seasonably cold temperatures for Saturday, highs between upper 20s
and low 30s. That is followed by a relative warm-up between Sunday
and Tuesday, highs reach the middle to upper 30s and overnight lows
in the upper teens and low 20s. Heading towards the middle part of
next week brings the chance for another surge of Arctic air and
below normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z update...
Thru Friday night...High confidence
VFR, dry and SW winds 10-15 kt Thu afternoon, becoming west Thu
night and then WNW Friday, diminishing Fri night.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: VFR.
Saturday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Thru Friday night...
SW winds 10-15 kt Thu afternoon, becoming west Thu night then WNW
Fri and diminishing Fri night as high pressure builds into New
England. Light freezing spray at times, especially at night. Wind
and seas remain below SCA thresholds (5 ft/25 kt).
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to
30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Nocera
MARINE...Belk/Nocera
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 2:40 PM EST----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
