ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 9:37 AM EST764
FXUS61 KILN 231437
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
937 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move east across the region later this
afternoon into tonight. This weather system will bring some snow
showers and scattered flurries before tapering off late
tonight. High pressure will then build east into the central
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Friday. The high is expected to
move east of the region Friday night. Another weak cold front is
poised to move into the area this weekend. Below normal
temperatures will persist into Friday with some moderation
expected over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes needed for the morning update. Increasing
clouds and scattered flurries ahead of a warm front this
morning will transition to snow showers this afternoon ahead of
a cold front. Temperatures will rise into the 20s with even a
few 30s in the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
For tonight, the weak front will continue to move east.
Isolated/scattered snow showers with the front will taper off to
scattered flurries. Flurry chances should shift to our eastern
zones overnight as some clearing begins to work into our western
zones. Again, snow accumulations will be a half inch or less.
Colder air will infiltrate the region once again, resulting in
lows in the single digits west to the lower teens east.
On Friday, other than a few lingering flurries east, skies will
range from mostly sunny to partly cloudy as surface high
pressure builds east into the central Great Lakes and middle
Ohio Valley. It will be colder compared to Thursday's highs.
Highs will range from the upper teens north to the lower/mid 20s
south.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A dry forecast is in store through at least Tuesday, then a
slight chance of snow will occur overnight Wednesday and change
to a slight chance of rain on Thursday.
High pressure east of the area will see a southerly flow in the
Ohio Valley. This flow will become southwest and then late
Saturday night become more westerly. This is as a weak cold
front dissipates across Indiana and Ohio. Deep westerly flow on
Sunday will turn southwest at the surface until a cold front
enters from the northwest Tuesday. A brief northwest flow will
get cut off by daybreak Wednesday as weak high pressure settles
over the region. Another cold front will cross south through the
region early Thursday. High pressure behind the front will
settle over the lower Great Lakes and keep a northeast to east
flow over the CWA.
On temperatures, the region will be generally close to normal.
On Saturday, highs will rise to above freezing across the
region. Overnight lows will jump out of the single digits into
the low and mid 20s. Sunday will have a higher range in highs -
from the upper 20s north of I-70 to near 40 over northern KY and
Scioto County.
Lows Sunday night will be near 20. Beginning with Monday, highs
in the mid 30s to around 40 will gradually rise to the upper
30s and mid 40s on Saturday. Monday night lows will be the
warmest of the period, in the mid to upper 20s. Then lows will
bottom out in the lower 20s north to upper 20s south for lows on
Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For today, a weak cold front will make its way east into the
central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Clouds will increase
and lower ahead of the front, bringing MVFR ceilings
(1500-2500). Models suggest that as the front nears, some low
level convergence and shallow instability will be enough to
trigger some scattered snow showers along and just behind the
front. This could bring some pockets of mainly MVFR
visibilities, but some isolated IFR visibilities could also
occur. Will continue to handle this potential with either a VCSH
or TEMPO group for now. Winds will increase ahead of the front
and veer to a more westerly direction between 10 and 15 knots
with gusts around 20 knots.
For tonight, as the front passes by to the east, scattered snow
showers will give way to a few lingering flurries. MVFR
ceilings (and pockets of MVFR visibilities) will gradually begin
to lift back to VFR across the west overnight as clouds
scatter. Winds will veer to the northwest and diminish to around
5 knots.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible on Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 9:37 AM EST---------------
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